The African National Congress is on course to suffer a bruising defeat in South Africa’s local elections, with the once dominant party of Nelson Mandela falling to under a third of the vote nationally with more than 80% of ballots counted.

Wednesday’s fragmented vote marks another stage in the decline of the ANC, which has led national governments since the end of white minority apartheid rule in 1994. High unemployment, crime, corruption and poor local service delivery have all contributed to voters turning away from the party.

The former liberation movement is projected to lose its status as the biggest party in the two most populous provinces, Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal, as parties began coalition negotiations behind closed doors. The final results are expected to be announced on Sunday.

The ANC was on 31.8% of the vote nationally, almost 14 percentage points below its 2021 local election result. The centre-right, white-led Democratic Alliance (DA) had 24.1% of the vote, while the uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) party of the former ANC president Jacob Zuma was on 9.3%.

Turnout also rose in Wednesday’s poll. The election commission estimated that 54.5% of registered voters cast their ballot, up from 46% five years ago.

The final shape of coalitions in some of the country’s biggest cities remained unclear with the final votes still being counted. Senior figures in key parties said they would talk with almost anyone, while keeping negotiating strategies under wraps.

In Johannesburg, South Africa’s commercial capital and biggest city, with 4.8 million people, voters have had to contend with regular water and power cuts, uncollected rubbish and potholes. The municipality, which has seen 10 changes of mayor in the last decade amid unstable coalitions, has admitted to a 220bn rand (£9.9bn) infrastructure spending backlog.

With just over half of votes counted in Johannesburg, the DA was leading with 40%, having run an energetic campaign under Helen Zille, a 75-year-old former Cape Town mayor. The ANC, which leads the current coalition, was in second place on 17.5%. ActionSA, a rightwing party led by Herman Mashaba, was on 15.5%. Mashaba has pledged never to work with Zille, whom he calls “racist”, something she vehemently denies.

Many of the ANC’s township strongholds have yet to report full results. The Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR), a respected thinktank, has projected the DA will finish with 34%, the ANC 20% and ActionSA 16.8%.

Coalitions in Gauteng’s three city municipalities are often negotiated together. The DA is leading in all three.

The MK party, led by 84-year-old Zuma as he continues to weather and deny numerous corruption allegations, is expected to displace the ANC as the largest party in KwaZulu-Natal. Founded in 2023, it mixes socially conservative Zulu nationalism with pledges to redistribute land and wealth from white to black South Africans.

With half of votes counted in eThekwini municipality, which contains Durban, the MK had 41%, meaning other parties could form a coalition to keep it out of power. Meanwhile, the DA is projected to maintain its majority in Cape Town, despite growing middle-class anger over rising housing costs.

Voters choose a local councillor and a party, with seats allocated via proportional representation. Councillors will then have two weeks to elect mayors and form municipal governments.