Europe could face a gas shortage this winter if Donald Trump fails to strike a deal with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has warned.

Gas storage levels could plummet under 10 per cent of working capacity by April 2027 if Hormuz remains closed and Europe suffers “colder-than-average weather conditions”, the agency said in its quarterly gas report.

The European market would be left “particularly exposed” to cold spells and other supply disruptions, because the rate at which gas storage sites can deliver to European homes typically falls when reservoirs drop under 30 per cent of capacity.

Going into this winter, gas storage levels are at their lowest levels since 2013, it added.

Prices could shoot up as a result of low storage along with “limited storage options in several LNG importing countries in Asia and South America”.

But hopes for a deal are low after the US launched fresh attacks on Iran on Monday – including one on Qeshm Island – while Iranian supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei warned in a rare statement that Tehran will wage war with “no geographical restrictions” if the US resumes strikes.

Resuming the flow of LNG through the Strait of Hormuz is especially critical as the EU looks to reduce its dependency on Russian LNG, having brought in a record 12.18 million tonnes of Russian Arctic LNG in first nine months of 2026, according to an analysis of Kpler data by Urgewald.

Short-term LNG contracts signed before 17 June 2025 were banned as of April this year, while any new Russian import contracts were banned as of 18 March 2026. Long-term bans on Russian LNG will be imposed in 2027, a move which was agreed last year.

But the Trump administration is now providing a counter pressure to these efforts, reportedly pushing to restore Russian natural gas sales to Europe via pipelines running through Ukraine.

Under the proposals, Russian gas would be sold through a US intermediary in order to avoid sanctions by the EU.

US envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff proposed the idea during trips to Moscow and Kyiv earlier this year, as Washington looks to push for an energy truce ahead of the winter, the Wall Street Journal reported.

Trump has vowed to bring an end to Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz following the US midterm elections taking place on Tuesday, with reports in US media that he could order a resumption in strikes as soon as tomorrow.

For LNG to freely flow through the Middle East is one of the quickest available fixes for the shortfalls being forecast by the IEA.

According to the report, global LNG supply will fall by 3 per cent in 2026 – almost 20 billion cubic metres (bcm).

“Global gas demand is expected to decline by around 1.5%, or close to 65 bcm, driven by demand destruction in the Middle East, lower industrial gas consumption in Europe and gas-to-coal switching in the power sector across many countries in Asia,” the IEA added.