On the eve of the consequential midterm elections in the United States, candidates in Michigan’s bitter, hard-fought US Senate race have made their final appeals to voters in a contest that could help determine control of Congress.

During duelling campaign rallies on Monday evening, Democrat Abdul El-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers offered contrasting visions to the state’s voters. Despite dramatic, late-breaking developments, polls suggest the tenuous race has slipped further out of reach for the Republican Party.

As Tom Petty’s I Won’t Back Down played in the background, Rogers took the stage in Rochester Hills, Michigan, to talk about the race he described as a battle for the “heart and soul of the country”.

“Are you guys ready to fight for freedom tomorrow?” the former congressman asked the crowd. “Are you ready to send a message to the rest of the country that we are the ones that defeated the Democrat Socialists of America?”

Half an hour away in Detroit, at a rally with members of the United Auto Workers labour group, El-Sayed focused on his cost-of-living platform. He touched on the barrage of dark themes that have reverberated across the state – and the nation – in the closing days of the campaign, including a litany of anti-Muslim rhetoric.

“You might think that in a moment when gas is too expensive and people can’t afford their groceries, that if you wanted to win an election, you might want to talk about gas and groceries,” El-Sayed told rally attendees. “They don’t wanna talk about gas and groceries. They wanna talk about me and my name and my faith.”

The primary instigator of those attacks, US President Donald Trump, has said that El-Sayed, whose family emigrated from Egypt, would “invite hordes of jihadis” to the US. Trump has also frequently purposefully misnamed the Democrat, calling him “Abdul Ramadan”, or emphasising his middle name, “Mohammed”.

“I don’t even care if [Trump] knows what my name is,” El-Sayed said. “Because after tomorrow, we’re gonna make sure he calls me senator.”

But a shocking endorsement of El-Sayed’s opponent from a fellow Democrat may prove pivotal, as late-deciding Michiganders prepare to enter the voting booth on Tuesday.

Representative Haley Stevens, a Democrat who lost to El-Sayed in the race for the US Senate nomination during the state’s primary earlier this year, sent shockwaves across the country on Sunday when she broke ranks and threw her support behind Rogers.

Stevens, who had struggled in a series of interviews to explain why she decided to back the Republican in the race, posted a lengthy message to social media Monday detailing what went into her decision. She said it was based on an advertisement unaffiliated with El-Sayed’s campaign that tied US support for Israel to rising grocery costs, as well as being “shut out” of the campaign.

“Mike Rogers and I disagree on many things. But Michigan has to elect a senator and there is no neutral choice that absolves me of responsibility,” Stevens wrote on X. “Once I concluded that Abdul El-Sayed is not fit to serve in the United States Senate, I had to confront who should.”

Stevens, who chided her fellow Democrats for their reaction to her endorsement, hinted at possible future political plans when she leaves office in January. “We can build a stronger, more welcoming, more courageous Democratic Party,” she said. “And I plan to help lead that effort”.

Attendees at Rogers’s rally applauded when he highlighted Stevens’s and other Democratic endorsements he had received.

“That is a special kind of courage,” he said of Stevens.

The crowd then burst into chants of “Haley!”

A New York Times-Siena poll released on Sunday suggested El-Sayed is leading Rogers by 11 percentage points – 53 to 42 percent – among likely voters. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points.