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Election analyst Nate Silver has given a major update to his midterm election predictions – and it’s good news for the Democrats.
Silver predicts there is now a 79 percent chance of Democrats taking the Senate, up from his previous estimate of 75 percent, as Republicans brace themselves for a blowout.
“Very strong polls for Democrats in individual Senate races over the past couple of days,” Silver posted on X. “Polls can be wrong, that’s what models/probabilities/markets are for, but I think we’re past the point where you can honestly say ‘polls show the Senate is too close to call.’”
The election forecaster revealed his new figures on The Argument YouTube show. “It’s 79 in the Senate,” he said. “That’s a little bit higher than prediction markets, but I feel decent about that actually.”
But Silver also cautioned on his Substack that Democrats’ polling leads in key Senate battleground states, including Texas, Ohio, Alaska and Maine, “are all just a normal-sized polling error away from flipping.”

Democrats “remain strong favorites” to retake the House, Silver added.
President Donald Trump’s favorite pollster, CNN’s Harry Enten, also predicted Democrats will win big next Tuesday.
“Look at it now, up like a rocket. We’re now talking 223 seats. This is north of the 218 that Democrats need to take back the U.S. House of Representatives,” Enten said Wednesday.
Next week’s elections are widely considered a referendum on the Trump administration after nearly two years in power. Trump’s approval ratings have tanked to historic lows amid his deeply unpopular war in Iran, and as Americans continue to struggle with the cost of living.
Republicans are bracing themselves for “a brutal evening” as some members are already expressing resignation about losing their majorities in Congress, Politico reports.

“Once the dominoes start falling it becomes hard to stop them,” one senior Republican strategisttoldthe outlet.
They are nevertheless facing “a worse position than they expected earlier this year,” according to Politico.
“Any Democrats telling you they aren’t winning the Senate [besides] a couple of seats are sandbagging expectations,” one particularly dismayed senior Republican is quoted as saying.
Around 40 million Americans have already cast their ballots in an election that will have major repercussions for the second half of Trump’s final term. If Democrats do retake the House and the Senate, it would render him a lame duck, powerless to pass his legislative agenda and under investigation by emboldened Democrats on Capitol Hill.
Trump has dismissed unfavorable polling as “fake.”
