The UK will need to allocate additional funding for international aid if it is to meet its target of 0.3 per cent of gross national income, with a current estimated shortfall of £410 million, according to a new report.

Forecasting by the Center for Global Development (CGD), a think tank focused on global development, shows planned spending is likely to undershoot the target and meet only 0.29 per cent of national income.

Its most conservative forecast estimated a £250m shortfall, while a gap of as much as £580m, leaving a spend of 0.28 per cent of national income, was “very plausible”.

It represents material shortfalls in the spending power of UK aid, the CGD said in a blog post published on their website, with the extra money enough to halve cuts to Africa that “will cost thousands of lives and mean the UK’s de-facto exit from the south and east of the continent”.

It could also fund reform of the Green Climate Fund, which helps other countries’ ambitions on cutting emissions.

The UK chancellor, John Healey, is expected to outline new budget proposals on Wednesday amid speculation of potential tax rises or spending cuts to fill a growing black hole in the public finances.

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The CGD has urged the new foreign secretary and international development minister to resist any artificial delay to aid spending and insist that the Treasury honors its commitment to 0.3 per cent.

It said the upcoming Budget “is a moment for the new government to put its stamp on how Britain is run”.

“The government made steep and damaging cuts and set a new target of 0.3 per cent for 2027 that would be a 25 year low. The very least it could do is ensure that target is fulfilled,” the CGD said.

The shortfall was attributed to higher forecasts for nominal national income, driven partly by inflation and rising energy prices following the conflict in Iran.

As aid spending is calculated as a proportion of gross national income, the higher forecast means the government must spend more in cash terms to meet its 0.3 per cent target.

The government announced in February 2025 that it would cut aid spending from 0.5 per cent to 0.3 per cent of gross national income by 2027 to fund higher defence spending. The reduction is expected to free up £6.5 billion for defence in 2027-28.

The new target is the lowest proportion of national income spent on aid since 1999.

The cuts come as aid budgets are under pressure internationally, with other major donors including the US, France, Germany and Japan also reducing spending.

A Foriegn, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) spokesperson said: “The publication of the FCDO multi-year ODA allocations in March 2026 set out our spending plans and priorities for the next three financial years based on GNI [gross national income] at the time of the 2025 spending review.

“Moving to a fixed budget reduces volatility and provides the necessary stability to deliver high-impact aid programmes.”

Gideon Rabinowitz, Director of Policy and Advocacy at Bond, a UK network for organisations working in international development, said that the NGO has “repeatedly warned that the UK aid budget is at risk of falling below the targeted 0.3% of GNI”.

“Today’s analysis further confirms our fears and risks leaving communities experiencing the impacts of conflict, crisis and climate change worldwide to pay an even higher price,” Rabinowitz said.

“With this injustice in mind, the Chancellor must use the Autumn Budget to honour Labour’s manifesto commitments – by ruling out further cuts to the UK aid budget, and ensuring savings by other departments spending the UK aid budget are returned to the FCDO and that credible and transparent spending targets are set and maintained,” he added.

This article has been produced as part of The Independent’s Rethinking Global Aid project