Donald Trump’s new oil deal with Russia may not lower diesel prices as much as the president hopes, one expert warned.

Trump announced an agreement with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Friday that almost sounded too good to be true — and Patrick De Hann, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, has suggested it might be.

The president said Putin agreed to supply up to 3 million tons of diesel fuel to the U.S. and other countries in the coming months.

“Russia will immediately supply over 300,000 Tons of Diesel Fuel to the American and Global Marketplace, another 500,000 Tons during the month of November, and 1,000,000 Tons immediately thereafter,” Trump wrote on Truth Social. “Additionally, based on the condition of their Diesel Refineries, Russia will then deliver, within a short period of time, 3,000,000 Tons of Diesel Fuel.”

But De Haan said he was “skeptical” the deal will bring “significant relief” to Americans, as the average cost of a gallon of diesel remains more than two dollars above last year’s prices thanks to Trump’s war in Iran.

“On the policy front, the Trump administration’s proposed diesel deal raises more questions than it answers, and I remain skeptical that it will deliver significant relief to the trucking industry and consumers who depend on diesel,” De Haan said in a new analysis released Monday.

The average cost of a gallon of diesel is about $6.25, according to GasBuddy. This is 5.9 cents lower than last week, but about $2.55 more than a year ago.

GasBuddy announced in early September that diesel had reached $6 a gallon for the first time in history, with the national average near $3.70 a gallon just a year ago.

“Not every day are new all-time records set, and this will be a particularly painful one for the economy that may not even be immediately felt, but record diesel prices will impact every cargo, shipment, every delivery Americans are taking, and are likely to reignite inflation up and down the supply chain,” De Haan said at the time.

Trump’s new deal comes as the Iran war continues into its eighth month. The president had promised a quick operation when the conflict officially kicked off in late February.

But there is still no peace deal in sight as Iran doesn’t seem to want to budge on the president’s red line: the Middle Eastern country can never obtain a nuclear weapon.

With the midterm elections right around the corner and the Republican leader saddled with an unpopular and costly war, Trump has had to get creative with ways to lower fuel prices — even if it means making a deal with an American adversary.

“This great announcement on Russian Energy, Diesel Prices for Americans and, indeed, the World, will be COMING DOWN, IN RECORD NUMBERS, AND FAST!” Trump wrote on Truth Social. “Lower prices for Americans, especially our Great Farmers, Ranchers, and Truckers, is my Greatest Priority.”

Trump’s agreement with Putin marks a major shift in U.S. relations with Russia since the president took office. Former President Joe Biden isolated Putin after the Russian leader invaded Ukraine in February 2022, slapping on numerous sanctions.

Trump, who literally rolled out the red carpet for Putin during a summit in Alaska in August 2025, has taken a softer approach, with a new deal that could help pay for Russia’s war machine.

Some Republicans in Congress have turned on Trump over the deal, joining a bipartisan group of lawmakers opposing imports of Russian diesel.

“The United States should not provide Putin with a financial lifeline while Russia continues to kill Ukrainian civilians. The Administration must immediately reverse course,” the statement from senators, including Republicans Susan Collins of Maine, Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, Thom Tillis of North Carolina and John Curtis of Utah, read, in part.