Key events
There is always lots of speculations and chatter about “ooh, so and so was nominated to the Nobel Peace Prize,” but it doesn’t mean that much.
All nominations must by submitted by 31 January, preferably online, but members of the Nobel Committee may add further names to the list during their first meeting, which last year was held in late February.
After that, the list is closed, and the committee works on a short list, which is then submitted to permanent advisers for their reports.
The final decision is made quite late, usually at the very last meeting before the announcement, in early October.
For what it’s worth, prediction markets have shifted again, putting Kuleba and Save Ukraine back in the first place, ahead of Navalnaya in the second.
It’s almost as if simply no one knows.
One hour to go
It’s one hour to go until we learn who is the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize winner.
10am UK, 11am CEST.
Last year’s peace prize was won by Venezuelan politician María Corina Machado for her dogged struggle to rescue the South American country from its fate as “a brutal, authoritarian state”.
She later presented her award to Donald Trump, meeting him in the White House, nearly a fortnight after he ordered the abduction of Venezuela’s president, Nicolás Maduro.
In his 1895 will, Swedish chemist and inventor Alfred Nobel wrote:
“All of my remaining realisable assets are to be disbursed as follows: the capital, converted to safe securities by my executors, is to constitute a fund, the interest on which is to be distributed annually as prizes to those who, during the preceding year, have conferred the greatest benefit to humankind.
The interest is to be divided into five equal parts and distributed as follows: one part to the person who made the most important discovery or invention in the field of physics; one part to the person who made the most important chemical discovery or improvement; one part to the person who made the most important discovery within the domain of physiology or medicine; one part to the person who, in the field of literature, produced the most outstanding work in an ideal direction; and one part to the person who has done the most or best to advance fellowship among nations, the abolition or reduction of standing armies, and the establishment and promotion of peace congresses.
The prizes for physics and chemistry are to be awarded by the Swedish Academy of Sciences; that for physiological or medical achievements by the Karolinska Institute in Stockholm; that for literature by the Academy in Stockholm; and that for champions of peace by a committee of five persons to be selected by the Norwegian Storting.
It is my express wish that when awarding the prizes, no consideration be given to nationality, but that the prize be awarded to the worthiest person, whether or not they are Scandinavian.”
And here we are, 125 years later!
The prize money this year is 12 million Swedish kronor, which is about €1.1m or £910,000.
Morning opening: Who will win the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize?
Jakub Krupa
The 2026 Nobel Peace Prize will be announced this morning, with all sorts of speculation about who could be this year’s worthy winner.
(Despite his hopes, Donald Trump is very unlikely to win it, again.)
Mykola Kuleba and Save Ukraine who work on rescuing Ukrainian children abducted by Russia during the war have long been among the favourites, alongside Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms.
But in the last few hours, Yulia Navalnaya, the wife of late Alexei Navalny, has gone straight to the very top of the list on some popular prediction websites. Could she be the one – just days after Vladimir Putin’s birthday in Russia?
Well: no one really knows, except a handful of members of the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
Its chair Jørgen Watne Frydnes will appear in front of cameras at 10am UK time (11am CEST) this morning to give us the name of the winner.
We will bring it live to you here.
It’s Friday, 9 October 2026, it’s Jakub Krupa here, and this is Europe Live.
Good morning.
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