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Home Office orders review after two small boats reach Kent without being intercepted by Border Force

Not every migrant boat can be intercepted, a cabinet minister has suggested, after two uncontrolled landings from the Channel in two days. The Press Association says Lucy Powell, the education secretary, said “(you) can’t stop everything all of the time”, the day after 21 people were detained when a boat evaded Border Force to reach the beach of Samphire Hoe in Dover. PA reports:

It was the second undetected landing in two days, following a dinghy making it to shore at Folkestone on Monday morning.

Shabana Mahmood, the home secretary, who has ordered an urgent review by the Border Security Command, said the failure to intercept the two boats was “not acceptable”.

Powell echoed that language in interviews this morning, while suggesting not all crossings could be prevented.

Asked on BBC Radio 4’s Today programme if the situation was embarrassing for the government, she responded: “[You] can’t stop everything all of the time. Of course, it’s a concern. That’s why the home secretary has demanded and ordered this urgent review, because this is not what we want to see. This is not acceptable.

“But the overall picture is an improving picture. It is hard, difficult work that requires constant, constant effort by our border forces, our security services, police, our partnerships with France and other countries.

“This is a mammoth and huge task, which is now starting to reap some dividends. But of course, you know where there are still issues arising, we must absolutely tackle them.”

In related news, Daniel Thomas, the far-right agitator and anti-migrant activist, has been arrested on suspicion of “criminal damage with intent to endanger life”, two days after he filmed himself slashing the side of a dinghy in the middle of the Channel, while a rescuer was on board.

Key events

MoJ launches campaign to encourage people to volunteer to serve as magistrates

The government has launched a drive to recruit thousands more magistrates to cut court delays, the Press Association reports. PA says:

Adverts will appear on national television, as well as on social media channels.

The Ministry of Justice (MoJ) is aiming to have a 21,000-strong magistracy by 2029, with the number having fallen to 12,500 in 2022.

Magistrates, made up of unpaid members of the public, hear around 95% of all criminal cases.

Under Labour reforms, their powers will be increased so they can hand down sentences of up to 18 months’ imprisonment, up from 12 months currently to deal with more cases.

Some 57% of magistrates are women, and 14% are from ethnic minority backgrounds.

The role requires volunteers to sit for a minimum of 13 days a year, which the MoJ says makes it compatible with work and family commitments.

Announcing the campaign, Alex Norris, the justice secretary, said:

Magistrates embody the very best of public service. They give their time, experience and judgment to make vital decisions that help ensure justice is delivered fairly in communities across the country.

I’m calling on the public to play their part – we need more people from all walks of life to step forward and become their local magistrate.

Nick Clegg plays down fears ‘godlike’ AI could exterminate humanity

Nick Clegg, the former deputy PM and former Meta executive, has dismissed fears over AI’s “godlike power to exterminate humanity”, calling it a sign that tech bosses are “breathing their own fumes”. Rachel Hall has the story.

The SNP has welcomed the findings of the YouGov MRP poll released this morning. (See 8.59am.) Keith Brown, the party’s deputy leader, said:

This poll tops off a massive month for Scotland with our constitutional future centre stage. It shows growing support for the SNP and a landslide in Scottish seats for our party …

Polling shows independence is the preferred choice of the Scottish people and this poll proves the momentum of this moment – the opportunity to build our future as an independent nation back home in the EU.

Lucy Powell cautious about Burnham’s call to lift football alcohol ban, saying good behaviour could be ‘at risk’

Andy Burnham has suggested he would like to lift the ban on drinking alcohol in the stands at football matches. He did not say the government would do this; he was stating what has been his personal view for a long time. In the past, prime ministers have worked on the basis that they can’t have a personal view on anything, because the moment they articulate it, it is taken as government policy. But Burnham has said that he wants MPs to have a bit more freedom to speak out without having to worry about the party line.

This means that cabinet colleagues don’t necessarily have to agree – and in an interview on BBC Radio 5 Live this morning Lucy Powell, the education secretary, suggested she had concerns about allowing drinking at football matches.

Asked about Burnham’s idea, she said:

I go to the football most weekends with my young son and 30 years ago that probably wouldn’t have been all that comfortable an environment for a mum and their child to go to, but things have changed significantly. And that’s why we’ve been able to reintroduce safe standing, for example, which is something that fans want.

So I think it’s a conversation we need to have to make sure that we keep the great atmosphere.

Powell said other sports, like cricket and rugby, allowed drinking without “bad behaviour” being a problem.

But she added:

I think we need to do this in consort with fans and with football, so that we make sure we keep the really good atmosphere, the good behaviour, and we don’t put that at risk.

From idealists to struggling sceptics: how Labour’s majority depends on five progressive voter types – in charts

The Survation MRP polling also explores the views of the various different voter types Labour would need for a “progressive majority”. Ashley Kirk and Jessica Elgot have the details here.

Tactical voting at next election could push Reform into fourth place, poll finds

There are two MRP polls out today. In addition to the YouGov one, commissioned by Sky News and the Times (see 8.59am), the Guardian is today publishing details of a Survation one. It says progressive voters could push Reform UK into fourth place and put Labour within touching distance of a majority if tactical voting is widespread at the next election.

In their report, Jessica Elgot and Ashley Kirk say:

Andy Burnham is beginning to attract a significant number of left-leaning voters back to Labour, motivated by a desire to stop Nigel Farage, the results suggest.

The poll of more than 8,000 voters, shared with the Guardian, suggests a widespread openness to voting tactically. It also shows the prime minister’s most successful electoral strategy would be to unite the centre and left bloc of voters, while the right remains split.

It would be a marked contrast to the tactics of Keir Starmer’s Labour before the 2024 general election, when the party tried to attract more conservative older voters. Such a tactic would be likely to unsettle some in Labour, given the same strategy was deployed for Ed Miliband’s failed bid in 2015, albeit before Reform’s arrival as a major electoral force.

The poll on the eve of Labour’s annual conference in Liverpool shows a significant shift of left-leaning voters towards Burnham’s Labour and will encourage those in the party who are thinking of gambling on an early election while Reform’s ratings are ebbing and while leftwing parties such as the Greens appear to be losing momentum.

Twice as many voters have returned to Labour from the left as from the right since April.

The report illustrates the potential impact of tactical voting and it contains this quote from Damian Lyons Lowe, Survation’s chief executive.

Estimating tactical voting is a complex consideration, but the mechanics here are simple. Four in 10 voters are currently backing a party that can’t finish in the top two where they live and are willing to vote tactically.

But when we ask whether they would lend their vote to the stronger local contender in a two-horse race, around half said yes. That gap – worth some 18 points of the national electorate – is an enormous untapped reservoir for parties looking to squeeze voters.

Should these voters act as they say, our model shows Reform falling from second place to fourth, losing around 90 seats, despite its own vote share actually going up. Reform-leaning Conservatives will consolidate too. Reform doesn’t collapse; it risks being outnumbered, seat by seat, by voters coordinating around whoever is best placed locally on the left and right.

Yesterday YouGov published separate polling showing that the number of people minded to vote tactically against Reform UK has risen significantly over the past year.

Home Office orders review after two small boats reach Kent without being intercepted by Border Force

It was the second undetected landing in two days, following a dinghy making it to shore at Folkestone on Monday morning.

Shabana Mahmood, the home secretary, who has ordered an urgent review by the Border Security Command, said the failure to intercept the two boats was “not acceptable”.

Powell echoed that language in interviews this morning, while suggesting not all crossings could be prevented.

Asked on BBC Radio 4’s Today programme if the situation was embarrassing for the government, she responded: “[You] can’t stop everything all of the time. Of course, it’s a concern. That’s why the home secretary has demanded and ordered this urgent review, because this is not what we want to see. This is not acceptable.

“But the overall picture is an improving picture. It is hard, difficult work that requires constant, constant effort by our border forces, our security services, police, our partnerships with France and other countries.

“This is a mammoth and huge task, which is now starting to reap some dividends. But of course, you know where there are still issues arising, we must absolutely tackle them.”

Labour likely to be biggest party in hung parliament, mega poll suggests

Good morning. Andy Burnham and Kemi Badenoch are both preparing for their party conferences (next week, and the following week, respectively), and this morning YouGov has released a new MRP poll with encouraging news for both of them. Polling is very good at revealing electoral trends, but a lot less good at predicting electoral outcomes, and wise politicians don’t treat them as gospel. But they also find polling impossible to ignore, not least because it shapes the landscape within which parties operate. A leader expecting to win the next election acts differently from one expecting to lose it.

And would Burnham win an election held now? Not exactly, according to the YouGov figures, but Labour would be the largest party. Here is YouGov’s summary of its results.

-Labour would be the largest party in a hung parliament, were an election held tomorrow, winning 241 seats in our model’s central estimates

-Such a result would be a net loss of 170 seats for Labour on the 2024 election, but is up from our MRP this time last year, which projected the party would be reduced to just 144 seats and showed Reform UK within touching distance of a majority

-Reform UK are now neck-and-neck with the Conservatives, with the parties respectively on 123 and 130 seats in our median projection

-Our central projection shows the Lib Dems on 71 seats, the SNP on 40, Plaid Cymru on 15, and the Greens on nine

-37% of constituencies are decided by margins of five points or less in our central estimate, with this rising to 67% of seats projected to be won by Reform UK

YouGov MRP poll results Photograph: YouGov

This is not a terrific result for Labour, but the party is in a much better position under Burnham than it was under Keir Starmer.

The YouGov figures suggest Badenoch has no chance of forming a government. But she may be even happier with these numbers than Burnham. A year ago polling suggested Nigel Farage was on course to be the next prime minister, and there was serious talk about the Conservative party being totally eclipsed by Reform UK. Not anymore. Today’s figures have the Tories narrowly ahead of Reform on the central estimate (the best guess – YouGov also has highest and lowest estimates for seat numbers). More importantly, the poll confirms that Farage’s hopes of forming a government are – for now at least – fading.

YouGov MRP poll results Photograph: YouGov

YouGov surveyed almost 17,000 people for the poll, between 23 August to 18 September.

I will post more on the poll as the day goes on. There will be other news too, although there is not a lot in the diary.

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