Schools and councils across England are expecting the proportion of children with special needs plans to double to one in 10, with families rushing to secure support before ministers bring in changes.

Headteachers have reported an “unreal” surge in applications for education, health and care plans (EHCPs) mandating support for needs or disabilities such as speech and learning difficulties, autism or ADHD. In 2025, just one in 20 school-age children had EHCPs.

The number of pupils with EHCPs has risen by more than 11% in each of the last two years, and projections by local authorities seen by the Guardian are anticipating similar, double-digit annual increases over the next three years. Similar levels nationally would mean just under 10% of all school-age children with an EHCP in 2029.

Such a rapid increase would outstrip the government’s own forecasts and eat into funding for improving specialist support in mainstream schools, undermining its plans for immediate reform while straining school and council budgets.

School leaders said their special educational needs (Send) coordinators had worked through the summer to deal with the influx of requests for assessments, as secondary schools say that many more year 7 pupils are arriving with EHCPs or applications.

One described the volume of requests as “unreal”; while other schools said they expect to have double the number of incoming pupils with EHCPs when the new academic year begins this month.

Bill Revans, the County Councils Network’s spokesperson on special educational needs and disabilities (Send), and the Liberal Democrat leader of Somerset council, said: “It is clear there has been a particularly sharp surge in assessment requests to our member councils this year since the government announced its planned reforms in February.

“Our previous analysis had predicted the number of EHCPs will rise to 840,000 by 2028-29, however, it is now likely these numbers will be exceeded.

“This translates to very real financial pressures on local authorities, and despite the government commitment to wipe 90% of existing Send deficits built up by councils over the past decade, we expect the debt to be re-accrued by as soon as this time next year.”

EHCPs are legal documents agreed between local authorities and families in England detailing the support required for children and young people up to the age of 25, allowing access to extra funding or places in special schools. While more than 530,000 school-age children have EHCPs, an additional 1.3 million have identified special needs, according to official data.

The costs are met out of local authority high needs budgets but the massive growth in EHCPs has led to councils amassing sustained deficits, and require a statutory override granted by central government to avoid many local authorities becoming technically bankrupt.

Georgia Gould, the schools minister overseeing the changes, said the government was carefully considering the responses to its white paper, which aims to give children earlier diagnosis and intervention and moderate the need for EHCPs. The white paper’s timeline would mean more children get individual support plans alongside increased support in mainstream schools; while EHCPs would be designed for those with more profound needs and disabilities from 2030.

During a visit to Thomas Lord Audley secondary school in Colchester, Gould said parts of the planned changes would begin operating this year, including the government’s new “experts in hand” scheme that puts specialists directly into mainstream schools and nurseries.

“I’ve spoken to parents around the country, and lots of families and children have been really let down by the system,” Gould said. “So they are really concerned, and any change can feel worrying for those families.

“That’s why we want to put in place tangible change they can see and feel in classrooms and in their communities. And we’ve been clear that we will build a new and inclusive system before we bring in wider changes.

“We’re really determined to put that support in place so parents don’t need to fight, the support will be readily available at their school, and so no child falls through the cracks.”

Gould acknowledged that it was “going to take time to build that trust, to work with families for them to see that day to day. All the work we are doing, the investment, the teacher training, the sharing of best practice, is so important.”

Paul Whiteman, the general secretary of the National Association of Head Teachers, said the reports of increases in EHCPs chimed with “what we hear from school leaders”.

Whiteman said: “While it is hard to give a definitive reason for why this is happening, it appears likely that the government’s plans to restrict future EHCPs to children with the most complex needs may have led to more families and schools applying before these changes kick-in.”

Ipsea, a charity that helps families navigate the special needs system, said its helplines had received most calls about EHCP provision since March, after the changes were announced.

Madeleine Cassidy, Ipsea’s chief executive, said: “The government’s proposed Send reforms risk making an already fragile system worse by removing the statutory protections and vital safeguards available to children and families when support is delayed, denied or inadequate.”

The surge in applications has led some local authorities to dramatically raise their own forecasts. A report by Hampshire council in July showed applications so far this year were at record levels and forecasted a 58% increase in EHCPs between 2026 and 2030. Manchester council is also anticipating a 40% increase in school-age children with EHCPs by 2029.

William Burns, a social care policy adviser for the Chartered Institute of Public Finance and Accountancy, said a forthcoming survey of local authority treasurers was likely to reveal that the renewed push for EHCPs was creating financial pressures.

Burns said: “The government’s own modelling suggests demand for EHCPs could return to today’s levels by 2035, yet current levels of demand are already placing severe strain on the system. It is therefore difficult to see how recreating today’s volume of need, even within a reformed framework, can be considered a sustainable end state.”