Lusaka, Zambia – Zambians vote on August 13 in general elections widely seen as a test of whether years of economic reform have translated into improvements in everyday life.

About 8.79 million voters are registered for the poll, according to the Electoral Commission of Zambia. Fourteen candidates are contesting the presidency, including Hakainde Hichilema, leader of the governing United Party for National Development (UPND), who is seeking a second term, and Brian Mundubile, the presidential candidate of the opposition Tonse Alliance.

Hichilema’s government points to progress on economic reforms, including Zambia’s debt restructuring and the completion of its IMF-supported programme.

Inflation fell to 6.8 percent in April, according to the Zambia Statistics Agency, but high food, fuel and electricity costs continue to put pressure on households.

Economic record

Joan Chirwa, a human rights defender and veteran journalist based in Zambia and the founder of the Free Press Initiative, said many citizens are yet to see tangible improvements in their daily lives.

“The central question coming from voters is increasingly whether the economic reforms of Hichilema’s first term have translated into tangible improvements in household incomes and living conditions,” Chirwa told Al Jazeera.

She acknowledged progress in Zambia’s debt restructuring and IMF programme, but said macroeconomic stability had not necessarily translated into improvements in household welfare, pointing to continued pressure from high food, fuel and electricity costs.

Wellington Muzengeza, an independent political risk analyst and founder of Built Africa, said “the election is likely to be shaped by the gap between macroeconomic recovery and ordinary citizens’ experience.”

While the government can point to debt restructuring, restored international credibility, free education and renewed mining investment, Muzengeza says voters are more likely to judge its record by food and transport costs, employment prospects, electricity reliability and the quality of public services.

Household pressure

Economic hardship is a major concern for voters, according to Levy Ndou, a lecturer in political sciences and public policy at Tshwane University of Technology.

“Political parties need to focus on the 60 percent of the population living below the national poverty line. These are people with high expectations that government can change their lives,” Ndou tells Al Jazeera.

Ndou identified unemployment as another major concern, saying economic hardship had left many Zambians frustrated and looking for leaders who could offer practical solutions.

“Politicians and leaders should bring a message that has the potential to bring change and hope to the Zambian people. They have gone through very difficult economic hardships,” Ndou says.

Campaign promises, Ndou said, would only carry weight if they led to tangible improvements in people’s lives.

“The issues they talk about during campaigning should be put into action, which is exactly what ordinary citizens would love to see happening,” he says.

Copper wealth

Copper is another key election issue, with the mining sector a major source of foreign exchange and government revenue. Copper accounts for about 70 percent of Zambia’s export earnings and more than 10 percent of gross domestic product (GDP).

The government has set an ambitious target of raising annual copper production to 3 million tonnes.

For Chirwa, however, the debate is not only about increasing production but also about how much of the revenue reaches Zambians.

“We can increase copper production, but how much of the revenue we generate is reaching the wider economy and making the difference that people expect to see?” she said.

“Whoever wins this election will face that pressure to demonstrate that increased revenues from the mines are benefitting the wider population,” Chirwa added.

“The focus should extend beyond output figures to the wider impact of the mining sector,” Muzengeza said. “Voters, particularly on the Copperbelt, will want to know whether mineral wealth is producing secure jobs, local procurement opportunities, stronger communities and sufficient public revenue.”

Ndou also raised concerns about Zambia’s heavy reliance on copper exports, particularly around how the sector is regulated and how its revenues are shared.

“Leaders should provide proper regulatory frameworks” to prevent the exploitation of copper and exchange rate mechanisms for private gain, while ensuring that Zambians benefit from their natural resources, Ndou said.

Debt reform

Debt restructuring is another key measure of the government’s economic record.

“Debt restructuring is a significant achievement because it reduced immediate financing pressure and helped restore Zambia’s international standing,” Muzengeza says.

“However, progress on sovereign debt does not automatically translate into improvements in household incomes or living standards,” he says. “The administration therefore has a credible macroeconomic story, but Zambia’s electoral history suggests that sound economic management must ultimately win broad public support.”

Political history

Zambia has long been regarded as one of Southern Africa’s stronger examples of democratic politics. Since the return to multiparty elections in 1991, six presidents from three political parties have taken office, although some electoral transitions have been marked by political tension.

Hichilema’s own path to the presidency was particularly difficult. He narrowly lost the 2015 and 2016 elections to Edgar Lungu and disputed both results, declining to accept Lungu’s victories. In 2017, Hichilema was arrested and detained on treason charges before his release. He eventually won the presidency in 2021, succeeding on his fifth attempt.

For Muzengeza, the economic question is ultimately the one facing voters.

“Voters will decide whether recovery has reached ordinary households quickly, broadly and fairly enough,” he says.