Welcome to From the Politics Desk, a daily newsletter that brings you the NBC News Politics team’s latest reporting and analysis from the White House, Capitol Hill and the campaign trail.

In today’s edition, Natasha Korecki digs into the perilous immigration politics facing the Trump administration and the GOP. Plus, we preview the key races to watch as primary results roll in this evening.

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— Adam Wollner

Trump’s ICE crackdown returns to the spotlight as the midterms loom

Analysis by Natasha Korecki

President Donald Trump’s Immigration and Customs Enforcement agency is revving up its operations across the country — a move fraught with political risk as the midterm elections draw closer.

While the Department of Homeland Security is under new direction with Secretary Markwayne Mullin at the helm, many of the past controversies that have loomed over the administration’s immigration agenda are back at the fore: questions over whom ICE is targeting for arrest, fatal shootings after vehicle stops and the conditions and deaths of those in detention. Negative headlines in cities big and small — including in battleground states — have returned in full force. So, too, has public outcry over it all.

There’s evidence of the political peril of bringing the country back to the height of immigration clashes. In the wake of two shootings of U.S. citizens in Minnesota by federal immigration agents earlier this year, an NBC News poll found that 60% of adults disapproved of Trump’s handling of immigration and border security. It was a sizable shift from earlier polls in which immigration was one of Trump’s strongest issues.

Not much has changed. A July Economist/YouGov poll found that 54% of Americans disapproved of Trump’s handling of immigration, while the same proportion said they had little or no confidence in ICE. And 58% of those surveyed, including 63% of independents, said ICE has used too much force.

In Maine, the uproar over the shooting death of Johan Sebastián Durán Guerrero by an ICE agent last month has put GOP Sen. Susan Collins under scrutiny for her June vote to fund the agency without including a series of policy restrictions.

Earlier today, protesters gathered outside Collins’ office in Biddeford, Maine. Democrats see her seat as critical to winning back the Senate. While she has proved resilient to challenges over her decades in office, Collins — like other Republicans in tough races this fall — is already trying to message around an unpopular president, a protracted war in Iran and the high cost of gas and groceries.

Last week in Texas, where another Senate race is fiercely playing out between Republican state Attorney General Ken Paxton and Democratic state Rep. James Talarico, a Trump voter’s tale of his fiancée’s arrest at an airport drew national television coverage and millions of views across social media.

“They’re destroying families. Jobs,” John Gannon, who described himself as a lifelong Republican, told CBS News. “They didn’t tell us why.” Gannon said that if he were given the choice, he wouldn’t vote for Trump again.

Elsewhere in Texas, the fatal shooting of Lorenzo Salgado Araujo by immigration agents is under investigation.

Under Mullin, ICE has reported a record number of arrests. But the tragedies are again piling up, as are questions about agent training and the legality of many of the arrests. Images of new tactics, like targeting immigrants in airports, are spreading across social media.

While the White House didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment, Trump isn’t showing signs of letting up on the crackdown. When DHS said last month that it would suspend vehicle stops after two fatal shootings, Trump made it clear that wasn’t what he wanted.

“We CANNOT give up one of ICE’s most important and effective Crime Fighting tools,” Trump wrote on Truth Social in July. “THE TRAFFIC STOP!”

What to watch for in tonight’s primaries

By Bridget Bowman, Ben Kamisar and Adam Edelman

The Democratic Party’s ideological and generational divides are on full display in today’s primaries across several states.

As we highlighted yesterday, the Wisconsin Democratic primary for governor has boiled down to a two-person race between state Rep. Francesca Hong, a democratic socialist, and Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley, who got a late endorsement from outgoing Gov. Tony Evers. Minnesota’s Democratic Senate primary also features a progressive-versus-moderate battle between Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan and Rep. Angie Craig.

While those contests are sure to dominate the headlines tonight — along with the special Republican primary in South Carolina after Sen. Lindsey Graham’s death — yet another House Democrat faces a tough race against a younger challenger in Connecticut’s 1st District.

Democratic Rep. John Larson, 78, is fighting for his political career against former Hartford Mayor Luke Bronin, 47. Larson, who first won his House seat in 1998, was endorsed by the state’s entire congressional delegation and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y.

But Bronin is calling for generational change in Congress, outraising Larson and winning the support of party delegates at the state Democratic convention. He also has the endorsement of former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, a potential 2028 presidential contender.

Larson told NBC News recently that Bronin threatened that he was “going to turn me into Joe Biden” at a meeting where he asked Larson to step aside, comments Bronin denies making.

Larson is looking to avoid joining the growing list of sitting lawmakers who have been denied renomination this election cycle. As Annelise Hanson recently noted, nine House members — six Democrats and three Republicans — have lost their primaries in 2026, the most outside a national redistricting year since 1970.

Read more on tonight’s primaries →

📩The Data Dive: And make sure to check out Steve Kornacki’s new weekly newsletter for NBC News subscribers about the numbers and trends shaping the biggest stories heading into the midterms. In today’s edition, he digs further into the establishment’s late scramble to stop Hong in Wisconsin.

📽️Tune in to the Kornacki Cam at 7 p.m. ET to watch Steve break down all of tonight’s results.

That’s all From the Politics Desk for now. Today’s newsletter was compiled by Adam Wollner and Lauren Zola.

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