The FIFA World Cup has often been defined by surprise packages, giant-killings and Cinderella stories. Not this time.

For the first time in World Cup history, the tournament’s semi-finals will feature the four highest-ranked teams in the FIFA World Rankings: France (1), Argentina (2), Spain (3) and England (4).

The blockbuster last-four line-up pits France against Spain, while defending champions Argentina take on England in a repeat of one of football’s greatest rivalries. It is a scenario that many predicted before the tournament began-but few expected all four heavyweights to survive the knockout gauntlet together.

FIFA World Cup rankings finally match reality

International football rankings are often criticised, particularly when lower-ranked nations make deep tournament runs or favourites stumble early.

This World Cup has delivered the opposite.

France have lived up to their billing as the world’s No. 1 side, Spain have once again showcased perhaps the most balanced squad in the competition, Argentina have leaned on their champion mentality to reach a third consecutive World Cup semi-final, while England have overcome difficult tests to justify their place among football’s elite.

Collectively, they have eliminated several dangerous challengers, including Brazil, Portugal, Belgium, Morocco, Norway and Switzerland.

France: Still the team to beat

If one team has looked capable of winning the tournament from start to finish, it has been France.

Didier Deschamps’ side possess arguably the deepest squad in the competition, with Kylian Mbappe continuing to lead one of the most devastating attacks in world football. Ousmane Dembele, Michael Olise and Desire Doue have all stepped up at key moments, while William Saliba and Dayot Upamecano have anchored one of the tournament’s strongest defences. ([The Guardian][2])

The only lingering concern remains midfield depth, particularly if Aurélien Tchouaméni is unavailable.

Chances of winning: ★★★★★

Spain: The tournament’s most complete team?

Spain may not possess the individual star power of France, but few sides have looked more organised.

Luis de la Fuente’s side have built their campaign on defensive discipline, intelligent possession and tactical flexibility. Rodri has dictated games from midfield, while Pedri, Dani Olmo and Mikel Merino have provided control in possession.

Questions remain over whether Lamine Yamal and Nico Williams are operating at full fitness, but Spain continue to find ways to win regardless.

Chances of winning: ★★★★☆

Argentina: Champions know how to survive

Argentina have not looked as dominant as they did during their 2022 triumph.

Instead, Lionel Scaloni’s side have relied on resilience, experience and moments of brilliance from Lionel Messi.

The defending champions have needed extra time against Switzerland and endured nervy victories over Egypt and Cape Verde, exposing concerns over an ageing midfield and a lack of width. Yet they continue to advance-a hallmark of champion teams.

No side remaining understands tournament football better than Argentina.

Chances of winning: ★★★★☆

England: Momentum or vulnerability?

England may have endured the toughest path to the semi-finals.

Thomas Tuchel’s side have battled through dramatic wins over DR Congo, Mexico and Norway, showing resilience even when performances have been far from convincing.

Harry Kane continues to deliver in the biggest moments, Jude Bellingham has been one of the tournament’s standout performers, while Declan Rice remains central to England’s hopes despite fitness concerns.

However, injuries at full-back and occasional defensive lapses leave England looking slightly less complete than their three rivals.

Chances of winning: ★★★☆☆

FIFA World Cup 2026: Who has the edge?

On paper, every remaining nation is capable of lifting the trophy.

France arguably possess the strongest squad and the best balance between attack and defence. Spain have been the most tactically consistent. Argentina have the experience of champions and Lionel Messi’s enduring brilliance. England have repeatedly shown the character to win tight knockout matches.

If current form is the deciding factor, France enter the semi-finals as slight favourites.

But with the world’s top four teams left standing, there is virtually no margin for error.

One brilliant performance-or one costly mistake-could decide who truly earns the title of the world’s best.