Good morning. Keir Starmer has been handling the Iran war reasonably well, according to the consensus view at Westminster, and certainly better than Nigel Farage and Kemi Badenoch, who have been in contortions over whether they do or do not support Donald Trump. But this has not altered the fundamental, big-picture assessment of British politics, which is that he is deeply unpopular with voters and that Labour can’t win the next election if he remains in charge. This may be a flawed analysis – consensus views often are – but it is what many Labour MPs think, which is why a question mark hovers over Starmer’s leadership.

And that is why Angela Rayner’s speech last night, at a private meeting with the soft-left Mainstream group, are so significant. She did not explicitly call for new leadership, but she did convey that message implicity – and more bluntly than in any of her other interventions since she resigned as deputy PM in September last year.

Here is our overnight story by Nadeem Badshah.

In her speech Rayner said:

It is down to us to rebuild this nation and this party – the question is are we up for this fight? I know we in this room are.

As a party, and as a movement, we cannot hide, we cannot just go through the motions in the face of decline. There’s no safe ground and we’re running out of time.

The change that people wanted so desperately needs to be seen, it needs to be felt. And we have to show that it is a Labour government that will deliver it.

And she said the government was “running out of time” to show it can deliver the change that the public needs.

She also included a passage in the speech highly critical of the plans from Shabana Mahmood, the home secretary, to significantly increase the amount of time migrants in the UK have to wait until they can get indefinite leave to remain (ILR). She was particularly scathing about the proposal for the new rules to cover people in the UK already in the queue for ILR. She said:

We cannot talk about earning a settlement if we keep moving the goalposts. Because moving the goalposts undermines our sense of fair play. It’s un-British.

Let us be a country that has sustainable economic migration rules, but one that upholds the British values we want all who live here to respect. Not special treatment. But the stability and a fair pathway forward after the sacrifices many have made to build a lawful life in the UK.

If we suddenly change that, it pulls the rug from under those that have planned their lives and commitments, and they’re contributing to our economy and to our society.

That would not just be bad policy, but a breach of trust. The people already in the system who made a huge investment now fear for their future. We cannot talk about earning a settlement if we keep moving the goalposts because moving the goalposts undermines a sense of fair play. It’s un-British.

These remarks seemed designed to kill off a policy already unpopular with many Labour MPs.

Mainstream is associated with Andy Burnham, the mayor of Greater Manchester, who, like Rayner, is seen as a leading contender to replace Starmer as Labour leader. Burnham was on the Today programme this morning, and he offered qualified support for what Rayner said, but without sounding overtly disloyal. Asked about her remarks, he said Labour “would always do well to listen to what Angela has got to say”. He went on:

We’ve got to, all of us, haven’t we, work together to pull together a plan that turns the country around …

I understand the frustration people feel. We heard that at the by-election, and of course, Angela is reflecting some of that.

But what I do feel that the signs are becoming really clear that there is a higher ambition, particularly for the north of England.

In particular, Burnham praised the plans for fiscal devolution announced by Rachel Reeves yesterday. That was “exactly what we want to see”, he said.

Nick Thomas-Symonds, the Cabinet Office minister, has been the government voice on broadcast news programmes this morning. Asked abour Rayner’s speech, he said Keir Starmer and his team were also impatient for change. He told Sky News:

I think where I would agree, and I think everybody across government would agree, is sharing an impatience with the pace of change, and that applies to every single one of us.

And I get the sense, I haven’t read the full context of Angela’s remarks, but I get the sense that that frustration is actually what is running through her remarks. It absolutely runs through every government minister as well.

Here is the agenda for the day.

10.30am: Zack Polanski gives what is being billed as his first big speech on the economy since becoming Green party leader. Here is Peter Walker’s preview.

Noon: Keir Starmer faces Kemi Badenoch at PMQs.

If you want to contact me, please post a message below the line when comments are open (between 10am and 3pm), or message me on social media. I can’t read all the messages BTL, but if you put “Andrew” in a message aimed at me, I am more likely to see it because I search for posts containing that word.

If you want to flag something up urgently, it is best to use social media. You can reach me on Bluesky at @andrewsparrowgdn.bsky.social. The Guardian has given up posting from its official accounts on X, but individual Guardian journalists are there, I still have my account, and if you message me there at @AndrewSparrow, I will see it and respond if necessary.

I find it very helpful when readers point out mistakes, even minor typos. No error is too small to correct. And I find your questions very interesting too. I can’t promise to reply to them all, but I will try to reply to as many as I can, either BTL or sometimes in the blog.