Juba, South Sudan – As South Sudan marks 15 years of independence on July 9, hopes that accompanied the birth of the world’s youngest country in 2011 have given way to a fragile reality.

After decades of struggle for self-determination and a long civil war with Sudan, the country descended into its own conflict between 2013 and 2018, a war that researchers estimate killed hundreds of thousands of people.

Although the 2018 Revitalised Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in South Sudan (R-ARCSS) largely ended the fighting, analysts and humanitarian agencies say implementation has stalled, leaving many South Sudanese questioning when the dividends of independence will finally reach them.

“Basic services such as healthcare and clean water remain severely limited. They have become a privilege rather than a right,” Sabila Sebit, an activist from Western Bahr el Ghazal State, told Al Jazeera.

She said ongoing localised and intercommunal violence continues to undermine daily life in many parts of the country.

“Peace and security remain major concerns due to ongoing localised and intercommunal violence affecting almost every state. Establishing lasting peace is critical so that families can live safely and continue with their daily lives,” she said.

Sebit also said the 35 percent affirmative action quota for women under the R-ARCSS has yet to be fully implemented, while legislation aimed at advancing women’s rights remains pending.

‘Persistent challenges’

South Sudan’s challenges include the “rise of intercommunal violence, revenge attacks, cattle raiding and the continuous killing of civilians by unknown gunmen”, women’s rights activist Zabib Musa Loro Bakhit told Al Jazeera.

Bakhit said conflict-related sexual violence, early marriage, land grabbing and worsening economic hardship have left many communities struggling with hunger and without adequate government support.

For Thomas Batista Balash, a resident of Juba, the anniversary is a moment for reflection rather than celebration.

“On the 15th anniversary, I reflect on our journey with a personal perspective that acknowledges both our significant strides and persistent challenges,” Balash told Al Jazeera.

He said corruption, tribalism and weak institutions continue to undermine progress, making national healing and reconciliation essential for unity.

Across South Sudan, many citizens continue to grapple with soaring inflation, unemployment, unpaid public-sector salaries and limited access to education, healthcare and clean water.

Humanitarian needs deepen

Humanitarian agencies face mounting pressure as conflict, climate shocks and the arrival of more than 1.2 million returnees and refugees fleeing the war in neighbouring Sudan deepen already severe needs.

“We’re seeing growing demand for trauma services as fighting intensifies,” Kieran Seager, spokesperson for the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) in Juba, told Al Jazeera. “In the first six months of 2026, we conducted 266 medical evacuations, 50 percent more than in the same period last year.”

Many of those patients were transferred to Juba Military Hospital, which Seager said is operating beyond capacity.

The ICRC provides surgical treatment, physiotherapy and mental health and psychosocial support for weapon-wounded patients, but Seager said humanitarian access remains difficult because of insecurity, poor infrastructure and seasonal flooding.

“Humanitarian funding is simply not keeping pace with the scale of needs in South Sudan,” he said. “As South Sudan marks 15 years of independence, sustained donor support is needed to prevent further deterioration of an already fragile situation.”

Peace process under strain

The 2018 peace agreement remains “the most viable framework for achieving lasting peace and stability”, James Boboya Edimond, chief executive officer of the Institute of Social Policy Research, told Al Jazeera, although implementation has been far slower than expected.

“Recent assessments indicate that less than 25 percent of the provisional agreement has been implemented,” Edimond said.

He noted that delays in security sector reforms, including the verification and deployment of unified forces, continue to undermine the transition. He also cited weak institutions, fiscal constraints, limited local government capacity and continuing displacement as major obstacles to lasting peace.

Localised conflicts, particularly in Upper Nile and Jonglei states, continue to fuel displacement, humanitarian needs and public distrust in state institutions.

South Sudan is scheduled to hold its first post-independence elections on December 22, 2026. Edimond said the polls should be viewed as part of a broader democratic process rather than an end in themselves.

“Credible elections depend on the full implementation of the peace agreement, completion of the constitution-making process, a secure political environment and adequate civic and voter education,” he said.

Government officials, however, say extending the transitional period was necessary to complete outstanding provisions of the peace agreement. They argue that stability is gradually improving in many parts of the country while acknowledging that significant challenges remain.

For many South Sudanese, those assurances offer little comfort as economic hardship, insecurity and displacement continue to define daily life.

Fifteen years after independence, South Sudan remains caught between the promise that inspired its birth and the realities faced by its people. The country’s future will depend on whether political leaders can move beyond competing interests and deliver the peace and stability citizens have long awaited.

“The systematic issues of corruption and tribalism are hindering our progress and creating inequality within institutions,” Balash said, noting that “National healing and reconciliation are essential for unity among the diverse components of our society.”