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Bayer Leverkusen head to Emirates Stadium believing they can upset the odds against Arsenal in their Champions League last 16 second leg, despite predictive models and history favouring the Premier League side. Kasper Hjulmand insists Leverkusen plan to impose their style in London and turn a balanced tie into a statement away performance.

The aggregate score stands at 1-1 after the first leg, when Kai Havertz converted an 89th-minute penalty to cancel out Robert Andrich’s earlier header. That late goal leaves Arsenal with a slight edge on away goals removed, but also gives Leverkusen confidence that the contest remains open heading into the decisive meeting.

Leverkusen’s preparation included a draw against Bundesliga leaders Bayern Munich on Saturday, which kept belief high in the squad. Yet the wider picture is less favourable. Opta’s supercomputer has given Hjulmand’s side just a 21% chance of progressing, the sixth-lowest probability among the 16 clubs that reached this Champions League last 16 stage.

History against English opposition also weighs on Leverkusen. The Werkself have lost eight of 11 away games against teams from England in the Champions League. However, recent trips show improvement, with two victories in their last three visits, offering some encouragement as they travel to face Arsenal in this Champions League last 16 clash.

Arsenal bring strong knockout pedigree into this Champions League last 16 tie. The Gunners have advanced from 17 of their 20 two-legged knockout ties in major European competitions. Under Mikel Arteta, Arsenal have also built an imposing home record in the Champions League, highlighted by consistent wins at Emirates Stadium.

Arteta’s side have won 13 of 16 home Champions League matches during the Spaniard’s tenure, drawing twice and losing once. That single defeat came in the semi-finals last season, a 1-0 loss against eventual champions Paris Saint-Germain in April 2025. Such numbers underline the scale of Leverkusen’s task in this Champions League last 16 encounter.

Hjulmand underlined that Leverkusen’s approach will again be proactive. “We expect a very close game. In the first leg, we didn’t give them much of a chance. We’ll try to be just as dominant the second time around. We’re confident we can win here and that we can advance in this competition. Arsenal are a very good teamit’s very difficult to throw them off balance. We’re here to competewe’re here to see if we can win the game. Let’s show who we are. We weren’t satisfied after Arsenal, and we weren’t satisfied after Bayern. We should have won. This hunger sets a benchmark for our levelwe have to orient ourselves to that.”

Leverkusen’s optimism is supported by their away form in Europe this season. The German side have already delivered strong performances on the road in the league phase, beating both Benfica and Manchester City. Those results show they can handle demanding venues, a useful reference before meeting Arsenal in this Champions League last 16 fixture.

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Hjulmand welcomed the intense atmosphere awaiting Leverkusen at Emirates Stadium. “We’re looking forward to this energy in the stadium. We love away games like this in the stadium,” Hjulmand added. “There are very few moments when you can take advantage of that, and then you have to be there. We try to be as dominant as possible.”

Midfielder Exequiel Palacios echoed Hjulmand’s confidence before this Champions League last 16 decider, stressing the squad’s belief in its style. “It will be a different game [to the first leg], but we have belief in ourselves and in our game,” Palacios added. “I always try to contribute with my passion and energy to ensure that we, as a team and as a club, keep progressing.”

With Arsenal’s strong European record, Leverkusen’s difficult history in England, and the tie finely balanced after the first leg, the second meeting promises a tight contest. Both sides arrive with form, clear tactical plans and high motivation, leaving Emirates Stadium ready to decide which club reaches the Champions League quarter-finals.

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