Almost one in four voters in Europe now cast their ballot for far-right parties, research shows, a proportion that has grown nearly fivefold since the mid-1990s and climbed particularly steeply over the past three years.

Analysis by more than 150 political scientists in 31 countries found the proportion of Europeans voting for a far-right party in their country’s most recent national elections had risen to more than 23%, from about 10% a decade ago and roughly 5% in 1995.

The research, led by Matthijs Rooduijn, a political scientist at the University of Amsterdam for the PopuList survey of European far-left, far-right and populist parties, also found that almost 30% of Europeans now vote for anti-establishment parties, another record.

“When we started the PopuList project in 2018, the key finding was that one in four Europeans were voting for populist parties, mostly far-left and far-right,” Rooduijn said. “Now one in four are voting for far-right parties, mostly populist. It’s a big shift.”

The surge in far-right support was particularly marked between 2023 and 2025, the research found, with far-right parties making often historic gains in national elections in big countries such as France and the UK in 2024, and then in Germany the following year.

Austria’s far-right Freedom party (FPÖ) advanced from 16% to 29% in elections in 2024, while France’s National Rally (RN) surged from 19% to 37% to become the largest single party in parliament and Chega in Portugal rose from 7% to 18%.

In Britain, Reform UK boosted its vote share from 2% in 2019 (as the Brexit party) to 14% in 2024, the research said. Reform has previously insisted it is not far-right. It did not respond to a request for comment by the Guardian.

In Germany’s 2025 vote, the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) doubled its score from 10% to 21%, finishing as the country’s second-largest party for the first time.

Far-right populist parties are now in government as part of ruling coalitions in Croatia, Czechia, Italy and Finland, propping up a right-wing minority government in Sweden, and, the analysis finds, leading in the polls in Austria, Belgium, France, Germany and the UK.

Such parties have also suffered recent defeats, including in the Netherlands, where Geert Wilders’ Freedom party (PVV) lost nearly a third of its seats to finish second last year, and Hungary, where Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz was comprehensively beaten by his centre-right rival in April.

Despite these setbacks, however, the share of European voters casting their ballots for far-right parties has continued to rise. “It’s important to emphasise this isn’t a sudden thing,” Rooduijn said. “It’s been under way for decades, and accelerating recently.”

A range of factors lie behind the trend, according to the experts working on the PopuList, which includes political parties that have won at least one parliamentary seat, or 2% of the popular vote, in national legislative elections since 1989.

First, Rooduijn said, research suggests voter attitudes towards core far-right themes, such as immigration, have not changed significantly over time, but have become far more significant in the decisions people make about which party to vote for.

Second, far-right parties have become normalised – a self-reinforcing process. “The bigger and more successful they get, the more ‘normal’ they become,” Rooduijn said. “That’s helped by the media, and by mainstream parties embracing their ideas.”

Lastly, far-right parties are “just really, really good storytellers”, he said. “They know how to frame their message, which ultimately is always about an in-group and an out-group – the nation versus immigrants, judges, ‘woke elites’, whoever.”

That produces a “heroes versus villains” narrative, tied to an idealised past in which everything was better, he said. “And they’ve got way better at articulating that, at stirring emotions: anger, contempt, also pride and hope. They’ve professionalised.”

The PopuList was launched eight years ago in partnership with the Guardian. In line with widely accepted practice among political scientists, it defines far-right parties as those that espouse two core ideologies: “nativism” and “authoritarianism”.

Nativism is the belief that a country should be inhabited solely by members of its native group. Nativists are therefore generally hostile to immigrants and non-natives, portraying them as a threat to the culture and interests of the native population.

It is also a major form of “exclusionism”: far-right parties are typically also exclusionist towards other perceived “out-groups”, such as people of different religions or sexual orientation, or establishment elites.

Authoritarians believe societies should be well ordered and all transgressions against authority should be punished severely. They see a strict approach to law and order as one of the key prerequisites for a stable society and healthy nation-state.

Many political scientists divide far-right parties into “extreme right” parties, which aim to overthrow the existing order, including through violence, and “radical right” parties, which broadly operate – or purport to – within the democratic framework.

However, because it can sometimes be unclear whether a party is “radical” or “extreme” right – its messaging may be inconsistent, some members may be more extreme than others, and its position may change – “far right” is used to refer to both.

Some far-right parties in Europe have tried to stop the term being applied to them. In Germany, AfD’s designation as “suspected right-wing extremist” by the domestic intelligence agency has been upheld by the courts, but the party may not be described as “confirmed” rightwing extremist until a court review is complete.

France’s top court rejected a 2024 objection by the RN to its interior ministry label of “far right” (extrême droite), saying the party’s core ideology, specific rhetoric and longstanding political platform justified the classification.

In Belgium, Vlaams Blok rebranded as Vlaams Belang as long ago as 2004, after the high court dismissed its argument that a lower court verdict upholding a description of the party as “racist” was an unconstitutional attempt to stifle an elected rival.

In general, courts have found that classification is a matter of political science and that, despite far-right parties’ efforts to detoxify, the media, state authorities and opponents are free to call them such based on their foundational ideology.

The latest PopuList identifies 133 far-right parties in Europe, against 112 in 2003. As with Europe’s 65 far-left parties, almost all are also classed as populist. In total, it names 201 populist parties, most of them far-right or far-left, up from 165 in 2003.

Usually combined with a rightwing or leftwing “host ideology”, populism divides society into two homogenous and opposing groups, a “pure people” versus a “corrupt elite”, and argues that all politics should be an expression of the “will of the people”.

Its supporters say it is a democratic corrective, privileging the ordinary person against the establishment. Critics say populists in power often subvert democratic norms, for example by undermining the judiciary and media or restricting minority rights.

“They express citizen discontent,” Rooduijn said. “So that’s good for democracy. But their ideas are not always compatible with liberal democracy’s core principles. That is especially true of populist parties on the far right.

“And that matters. The experience of countries such as Hungary, Poland and the US shows that when far-right populists gain power, democracy itself can come under pressure.”