Reform UK gloomy about prospects in Makerfield, as one party source says Labour ahead by 2,500 votes
Josh Halliday is the Guardian’s North of England editor.
A Reform UK source just told me they currently expect to lose to Burnham by around 2,500 votes. An official spokesperson would not comment on numbers but said they believe it’s “fairly close” and that “no one’s running away with it.”
The spokesperson denied reports that Nigel Farage had left Makerfield, saying he had just been on the phone to him and he was still in the constituency.
Separately, a senior Labour source said it did not look like Restore Britain had been able to turnout its vote to the level that some had predicted.
They said Rupert Lowe’s hardline anti-immigration party could “possibly” achieve 7% of the vote but it was very unlikely to be higher than that.
Lowe, who is giving a series of media interviews, is believed to be claiming to have won 10% of the vote.
Key events
Home Office minister Mike Tapp criticises calls for Starmer to hand over to Burnham, saying that would trigger ‘credible calls’ for election
The Makerfield result has not yet been declared, but already Labour figures are briefing against each other. Louise Haigh has been saying Keir Starmer should agreed to an “orderly and managed” handover of power to Andy Burnham. (See 2.05pm.) Mike Tapp, the Home Office minister, has also been giving interviews. He told the BBC that he disagreed with Haigh. He said he did not think a handover like that would be realistic, because Burnham “hasn’t laid out his political agenda”, he said. So there woud have to be a contest, he said. And that would mean “chaos”, he said.
Tapp also said that, if Burnham were to replace Starmer, there would be “credible calls for a general election”.
He said he wanted the government to be given time to deliver.
Tories say Aberdeen South their first Westminter byelection gain in Scotland for almost 60 years
Back to Scotland for a moment, and this is what Andrew Bowie, the shadow Scottish secretary, has said about his party’s decisive win in Aberdeen South. (See 1.58am.)
This is an extraordinary victory for Douglas Lumsden MP and the Conservatives. This is the first time that the Conservative party has gained a Westminster parliamentary byelection in Scotland since 1967.
We said this election was a referendum on the future of North Sea oil and gas, and Aberdeen has spoken loud and clear. Let’s Get Britain Drilling Now.
I look forward to Douglas joining the Conservative team in Westminster, where I know he will work tirelessly to hold Ed Miliband to account and stand up for the people of Aberdeen.
Nandy dismisses claim Burnham only winning in Makerfield because Restore Britain split rightwing vote
Hannah Al-Othman
Hannah Al-Othman is a Guardian North of England correspondent.
Lisa Nandy has said the Restore Britain vote “doesn’t seem to be quite at the level that the polls suggested”. (See 10.39pm.)
She said:
I think there’s a misunderstanding about the Restore vote here.
I’ve heard a lot of talk about how this is about Rupert Lowe and his profile, I’ve heard talk about how this is about them splitting the vote with Reform. Actually, they’ve always had a vote here, it’s not significant, it’s usually around six or seven percent of the vote, that if there’s an openly racist party on the ballot, will come out and vote for it.
So the idea that somehow if Andy wins here tonight, it will be because Restore and Reform have split the vote, frankly, I can say it’s for the birds. That group just stays at home if they don’t have an openly racist party to vote for.
And so, it really is about whether the most popular Labour politician in the country can pull off a victory in one of the toughest seats, where we just lost in large numbers seven weeks ago to Reform.
If Burnham does win, as expected, she said:
I hope that we can find a way to pull together and turn our gaze out to the country.
I think it would be a tragedy if we were to descend into infighting and turn the conversation to ourselves.
The reason that Andy has received so much warmth for the campaign that he’s run here is because it has been relentlessly positive, relentlessly hopeful.
Andy Burnham has just arrived at the Makerfield count, Josh Halliday reports. He got a huge round of applause from supporters.
Rupert Lowe claims Restore Britain’s vote in Makerfield ‘much better’ than he expected
Josh Halliday
Josh Halliday is the Guardian’s North of England editor.
Stop the press. Rupert Lowe just gave an interview to the Guardian – after calling me “a reptile”.
The Restore Britain leader said its vote was “somewhere in the region” of 10% which would be an “unbelievable” result for a party only four months old.
Lowe said it looked like Burnham’s vote had held up “much better than I thought it would”.
Earlier, a senior Labour source said Restore Britain activists had been involved in several incidents involving harassment during the campaign.
One of these incidents, witnessed by a Labour party member of staff, involved a taxi driver following a dispute with Restore Britain activists and local children, who then allegedly smashed the taxi driver’s windscreen.
The incident is said to have taken place near Labour’s campaign HQ in Stubshaw Cross on Wednesday night, the eve of the byelection. It has been reported to Greater Manchester Police, the Labour source said.
A separate incident apparently involved a taxi driver in the constituency being repeatedly asked where he was from by a Restore Britain activist. When told he was from Pakistan, the activist allegedly said he was campaigning to deport people like that taxi driver.
Asked about these alleged incidents, Lowe said he had no knowledge of them but that he was sure “the police will deal with it appropriately”.
“Today all I’ve seen is friendly banter amongst everybody,” he added.
Labour sources are saying that they expect to win Makerfield with 54% of the vote, Hannah Al-Othman reports. That would be a nine-point increase on their share of the vote at the general election – a big, decisive win.
SNP hold Arbroath and Broughty Ferry, with Labour pushed into 4th place – results in full
The SNP have held Arbroath and Broughty Ferry. Reform came second and Labour, who were in second place, less than 1,000 votes behind the SNP in 2024, came fourth.
Here are the results in full from the Press Association.
SNP hold
Lara Bird (SNP) 9,802 (40.39%, +5.07%)
Bill Reid (Reform) 4,841 (19.95%, +11.33%)
Jack Cruickshanks (C) 4,524 (18.64%, +3.13%)
Heather Doran (Lab) 3,651 (15.04%, -18.33%)
Tanvir Ahmad (LD) 1,452 (5.98%, +0.88%)
SNP maj 4,961 (20.44%)
3.13% swing SNP to Reform
Electorate 75,985; Turnout 24,270 (31.94%, -25.99%)
Burnham ally Louise Haigh says Starmer should agreed to ‘orderly and managed transition’ of power
Louise Haigh, the former transport secretary who has been one of the key figures running Andy Burnham’s byelection campaign in Makerfield, has told the BBC that, if Burnham wins (and she is clearly confident that he has won), Keir Starmer should stand aside.
She said that in those circumstances Starmer should “reflect on the results”, and on how much better they were with Burnham as a candidate than they were for Labour in the local elections, and then “do what’s best for the party”.
Asked what she meant by this, Haigh said:
I hope that he would consider an orderly and managed transition.
We have said that [Labour] is in an existential crisis and things cannot continue. And it was quite clear after the local elections, unfortunately, that he considered that business as usual would suffice.
Andy has potentially shown tonight that what a change the Labour party can bring … Without that optimism and without that on the ballot paper, then we will see a Reform prime minister at the next general election.
Asked how quickly she wanted the PM to depart, Haigh said that was up to the prime minister. Burnham would not be challenging in the immediate aftermath of the byelection, she said. He would want to speak to the PM “in the coming days”, she said.
Asked if she was talking about weeks or months, Haigh repeated the point about how this was in the PM’s hands.
She also said that Wes Streeting was still threatening to trigger a leadership contest.
Asked whether there should be a contest, she said she understood the arguments in favour of one. But she went on:
If an agreement can be made between potential candidates, then that’s all for the better.
I think dragging any process out for any length of time would be difficult for the Labour party, but more crucially for the government.
I think if that can be avoided and all parties can come to an agreement, that’s all for the best.
But of course, if we’re into a contest and people decide to trigger it, then that’s that’s where we are.
Asked if Burnham could be the PM within weeks, Haigh said she did not want to predetermine the outcome of any discussions. She said it was for the PM to decide. But she hoped he would reflect on what was best for the party and the country.
Burnham’s allies have been saying this sort of thing in private for some time.
But it is significant that someone so close to Burnham is now publicly saying Starmer should agree to an “orderly transition”.
Tories win Aberdeen South with majority of 6,050 – results in full
The Conservatives have won a huge victory in Aberdeen South. Here are the full figures from the Press Association
C gain from SNP
Douglas Lumsden (C) 14,308 (49.51%, +25.13%)
Richard Thomson (SNP) 8,258 (28.58%, -4.25%)
Jo Hart (Reform) 2,478 (8.58%, +1.67%)
Nurul Ali (Lab) 1,550 (5.36%, -19.35%)
Mel Sullivan (LD) 1,270 (4.39%, -1.91%)
Jorg Shelton-Eckstein (Green) 974 (3.37%, -0.10%)
David Ballantine (ADF) 59 (0.20%)
C maj 6,050 (20.94%)
14.69% swing SNP to C
Electorate 76,033; Turnout 28,897 (38.01%, -21.93%)
The turnout figure given earlier for the Aberdeen South byelection was in fact the figure for the Arbroath and Broughty Ferry byelection. (See 12.55am.) I’m sorry for the error.
SNP concedes Aberdeen South with Scottish Conservatives set to win
The Scottish National party (SNP) has conceded defeat in the formerly safe seat of Aberdeen South in a shock loss to the Scottish Conservatives, Severin Carrell reports.
Reform UK ‘very happy’ to come a strong second in Makerfield, says Sarah Pochin
Sarah Pochin, the Reform UK MP, told GB News a bit earlier that her party would be “very happy” to come a strong second in Makerfield.
That is not technically a concession. But it is not what you say if you think you have a chance of winning.
Reform UK gloomy about prospects in Makerfield, as one party source says Labour ahead by 2,500 votes
Josh Halliday is the Guardian’s North of England editor.
A Reform UK source just told me they currently expect to lose to Burnham by around 2,500 votes. An official spokesperson would not comment on numbers but said they believe it’s “fairly close” and that “no one’s running away with it.”
The spokesperson denied reports that Nigel Farage had left Makerfield, saying he had just been on the phone to him and he was still in the constituency.
Separately, a senior Labour source said it did not look like Restore Britain had been able to turnout its vote to the level that some had predicted.
They said Rupert Lowe’s hardline anti-immigration party could “possibly” achieve 7% of the vote but it was very unlikely to be higher than that.
Lowe, who is giving a series of media interviews, is believed to be claiming to have won 10% of the vote.
The SNP have conceded defeat in Aberdeen South with a senior source saying it is the “Tories’ night”, but pledging to “win it back in 2029”, the Press Association reports.
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