Polls open in Makerfield for historic byelection that could determine Keir Starmer’s future
Hello and welcome to the UK politics live blog.
The people of Makerfield, a constituency sitting just outside of Wigan, have at last begun voting in what could be one of the most consequential byelections in British political history.
Since Labour MP Josh Simons resigned to allow the mayor of Greater Manchester Andy Burnham a clear run at returning to parliament – and the opportunity to become prime minister – residents have been inundated with party campaigners and reporters.
Yesterday Burnham urged people to “vote to change politics” and said he would take the “fight as high as I can possibly take it”.
But, despite the seat being considered one of Labour’s safest (it has been red since its creation in 1983), the governing party face a stiff challenge in the shape of Nigel Farage’s Reform UK.
Although the Reform candidate Robert Kenyon’s campaign has been bogged down with the revelation of historic sexist social media post and, shall we say, less than impressive media performances under scrutiny, pollsters have the contest a close run thing.
It comes as Starmer on Wednesday said he was willing to offer the mayor of Greater Manchester a “big” job in his government, should Burnham win when Thursday’s votes are counted.
But allies of Burnham said he was not interested in the offer, insisting “the benefit Andy has is the wind of change for not having been associated with the government’s failings”.
Burnham and his allies are reported to be hoping for a “coronation” in which Starmer stands aside, rather than a leadership contest, which they believe would be damaging to the Labour party’s brand, according to the Times.
But the prime minister has repeatedly made it clear he has no intention of standing down and says that he will fight any challenge to his leadership.
What is certain is that the next 24 hours will prove to be a pivotal moment for this Labour government and, in particular, the prime minister.
Please be aware that the Guardian, like other news outlets, is not allowed to report details of campaigning or election issues while polls are still open today – they close at 10pm.
But you can follow our blog for all the latest in UK politics, as well as I am sure plenty of photos of dogs at polling stations. Because, let’s face it, that really is the true meaning of any British election.
Key events
Reform MP Sarah Pochin condemned for ‘dreadful’ domestic violence comments
Reform UK’s first female MP Sarah Pochin has faced criticism and ridicule today after a social media post than appeared to excuse domestic violence.
In a video on X, she said:
England won the football last night.
And thank god they did because, on the occasions that England lose their football matches, the incidents of domestic violence go through the roof.
So, boys. Keep winning.
She is absolutely correct that existing domestic abuse can intensify as a result of football. Cases of domestic abuse increase by 38% when England lose a match and 26% when they win or draw, according to the charity Women’s Aid.
But Pochin’s choice of words suggest violence can be avoided if England “keep winning”.
Education secretary Bridget Phillipson, who also holds the cabinet portfolio for women and equalities, condemned Pochin’s comments.
She replied:
Men should not beat up women.
Full stop. No excuses.
Meanwhile, Labour backbencher Andrew Western wrote:
This is dreadful.
How about “men, stop attacking women”?
The burden of government red tape which is tying up the City of London is also responsible for a potential cull of Dartmoor’s hill ponies, Kemi Badenoch claimed as she set out plans to slash regulation.
Speaking at TheCityUK’s annual conference in central London, the Conservative leader set out an overhaul of rules governing the financial sector, as she said the burden of regulations has become too high and created a risk-averse culture in Britain’s financial industries, PA reported.
She said:
The thing that would be most helpful is for all of you to speak out and say this is what we need.
Business is very scared of criticising government policy, they want to be invited to the advisory council, or to the reception in No 10, or they don’t want to have their meetings refused, but the rest of the public are not hearing what they need to hear.
Badenoch added:
Not enough people know, and not enough people understand just how bad it’s got.
I don’t know how many people have heard of the Dartmoor ponies being culled because of some weird regulation that came out of Natural England.
A row is growing over a potential cull on Dartmoor, with campaigners claiming requirements to cut livestock grazing on the moor’s commons under new contracts from the government’s conservation agency Natural England could lead to the removal of up to 90% of its hill ponies.
Polanski cleared by ethics inquiry over council tax payment complaint
Rowena Mason
Zack Polanski has been cleared by an ethics inquiry looking into complaints that he did not pay council tax while living on a houseboat.
A report by the Greater London authority’s monitoring officer found that the circumstances of the Green party leader’s living arrangements were beyond its scope and he had therefore not breached the code of conduct for London assembly members.
The complaints from Labour and the Conservatives alleged that Polanski had breached the requirements of the ethics code because he had not paid council tax while living on a houseboat in east London from 2022.
Polanski, who previously apologised for the “unintentional mistake”, revealed in his evidence to the monitoring officer that it had still not been established whether any tax was due and that the site of the boat fell on the border of two local authorities. As part of the inquiry, he told the monitoring officer that he had “personal experience of financial hardship and housing insecurity”.
He previously said he had not been living at the marina full-time but at another address as a lodger, before it emerged that he had occupied the boat for a couple of years before moving to a house.
In his witness statement, Polanski he said he had never had any intention to “evade council tax, avoid legal obligations or obtain any improper financial advantage” and it remained unclear whether he had actually failed to pay the proper tax.
“Any failure to appreciate the position arose solely from a misunderstanding of what was required in relation to an unusual and unconventional living arrangement,” he wrote.
A voter speaks to a police officer, as St Bernard dog called Indie waits, at a polling station:
Matty Edwards
The government’s annual accounts have been discounted by the National Audit Office for the third year in a row due to the amount of unaudited accounts from local councils.
For years, there has been a huge backlog in councils getting their accounts audited, which has meant the true financial health of local authorities has been obscured at a time when some have fallen into financial ruin.
The government has already legislated to tackle the local audit crisis via the English Devolution Bill, which will create a new Local Audit Office this autumn. But it remains unclear how long it will take to clear the backlog.
More councils have provided accounts than in recent years, which means there is less missing data in the 2024/25 Whole Government Accounts. But there were still 280 local authorities whose accounts were unaudited or subject to a disclaimed opinion from their external auditor, meaning we can’t be sure of the accuracy of the data.
Gareth Davies, head of the NAO said:
Recent measures to begin to restore normal audit assurance for English local authorities are welcome.
This work must be progressed with vigour to ensure timely and high-quality financial reporting for every local body, supporting their accountability to local people and providing more reliable whole of government accounts.
Rachel Reeves has warned her Labour colleagues not to “deviate” from her fiscal rules as the party braces for a leadership race that could begin within days.
Speaking at the Times CEO Summit in London on Thursday, the chancellor said Labour should stick to its manifesto commitments on economic stability and insisted she plans to carry on in her job, PA reported.
In a message to potential leadership challengers, she said:
We got elected on the promise to return stability to the economy, and anyone who wanted to deviate from that will not be fulfilling the manifesto commitments.
She was speaking as voters headed to polling stations across Makerfield in a contest that could see Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham return to Westminster and challenge Keir Starmer for the leadership of the Labour party.
Severin Carrell
Voters in two Scottish constituencies – Aberdeen South and Arbroath and Broughty Ferry – are busy today too, after their sitting MPs quit Westminster following their election in May to the Scottish parliament.
Recently-introduced legislation in Scotland bars MPs and councillors from sitting at the same time in Holyrood, so after the Scottish National party MPs Stephen Flynn and Stephen Gethins won constituency seats for Holyrood six weeks ago, their Commons seats became vacant.
The battle in Aberdeen South to succeed Flynn, previously the SNP’s Westminster leader, who left a 3,758 majority, is proving the most interesting by far.
The Scottish Conservatives argue they have a good chance of winning, based on recent local performances and past precedent, and are battling hard to defeat the SNP in its heartland by taking a very maximalist line on extracting every barrel of North Sea oil and gas.
A former Tory council co-leader, and current MSP Douglas Lumsden is taking on the equally experienced SNP candidate Richard Thomson, a former Aberdeenshire council leader who lost his previous Westminster seat of Gordon in the 2024 general election.
If the Tories did it pull off, and the bookies think they will fail, it would be a significant coup for the Tory leader Kemi Badenoch and deeply embarrassing for John Swinney, the SNP leader and first minister.
It would be read as evidence the Tories’ backing for North Sea oil is popular and that the furore over the £400,000 theft of SNP funds by its former chief executive, Peter Murrell, has damaged the SNP brand.
Arbroath and Broughty Ferry, a seat just to the east of Dundee, is seen as an SNP hold, even though Gethins held it in 2024 with less than 900 votes chiefly because Labour support has collapsed since the general election.
Tom Burgis
Nigel Farage has been trying to block a Bank of England cryptocurrency plan that could be costly for the billionaire bankrolling his party.
The Reform UK leader has said Christopher Harborne wants nothing in exchange for the millions he has donated to the party and the undeclared £5m personal gift to Farage that the Guardian revealed in April.
But Farage used a private meeting at the Bank to urge the governor to drop plans for a state-run alternative to the digital currency that has made his Thailand-based benefactor one of the richest people in the world.
Farage’s opposition to the proposal for a “Britcoin” is so strong that, after the meeting last September, he told an audience of crypto enthusiasts he would be “prepared to go to prison” to stop it, footage of the event shows.
Harborne’s £25m in donations to Farage’s Reform UK, formerly the Brexit party, account for about two-thirds of its funding. He is one of a handful of tech figures who own Tether, the company that issues the world’s most widely traded cryptocurrency.
Tether’s digital cash, known as stablecoins, is pegged in value to government-issued currencies, allowing users to exchange their money easily between the two. Registered in El Salvador with a small staff, Tether’s reported profits have surpassed those of Netflix and Coca-Cola.
If Harborne’s share of the profits is equal to his 12% stake, that would give him about £1bn a year. Those profits could fall, however, if the Bank’s governor, Andrew Bailey, proceeds with the Britcoin plan, which could cut demand for stablecoins such as Tether’s, according to a submission to the central bank by an industry body that represents the company.
Some live photographs of Andy Burnham on the campaign trail today:
Heather Stewart
Brexit has depressed UK exports to the EU by 12%, and rejoining the customs union would undo only a fraction of the damage, research shared with the Guardian shows.
With the UK’s future relationship with the bloc likely to feature prominently in a potential Labour leadership contest, the economists John Springford and Anton Spisak, of the Centre for European Reform, provide fresh evidence of the damage caused by exiting.
A decade on from the referendum, they have found that services sector exports to the EU are 7% lower than they would have been if the UK had remained in the EU, and goods exports are 16% lower.
Using detailed trade data and economic modelling, they show that the “overwhelming majority” of the impact – 10% of the total 12% decline in exports – is accounted for by leaving the single market.
“The regulatory costs related to Brexit – such as new certification procedures and checks for compliance with EU standards – have had a much more significant impact on UK-EU trade than customs-related barriers,” they say.
The hardest-hit sectors have been travel, finance and insurance, chemicals and pharmaceuticals, and agrifood.
The estimate of lost services exports is larger than previous research has suggested, because the authors take into account a significant uptick in services trade within the EU since the Covid pandemic that the UK has missed out on.
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