The Netherlands enter Saturday’s World Cup Group F clash with Sweden under pressure, and Cody Gakpo says Alexander Isak will be a major danger. Ronald Koeman’s side dropped points in a 2-2 draw with Japan, while Sweden opened with a 5-1 win over Tunisia to seize early control.

Opta’s supercomputer still rates the Oranje as slight favourites to finish top of Group F, but only with a 40% probability. A defeat in Houston would remove that outcome and could drag the Netherlands into a race just to reach the last 32, where qualification still appears in 90% of simulations.

Isak arrives in this match in strong form after a disrupted first season at Liverpool, where a leg fracture kept Isak out for more than four months. The Sweden forward scored once and supplied two assists against Tunisia, giving Isak three goal contributions already at this World Cup.

Those numbers already match the most by any Sweden player at a single World Cup since 2002, when Henrik Larsson scored three times. Gakpo, who plays with Isak at club level, underlined how much Liverpool valued Isak’s return near the end of the domestic campaign after that long absence.

“We were very happy that he returned and at the end [of the season] he was fit, he scored some goals and he played well,” Gakpo said of Isak. “And then, obviously, he started the tournament very well with his performance. I think everybody knows how good a player he is. We need to look out for him.”

The Netherlands bring a mixed recent World Cup record into this key contest. Koeman’s team have drawn their past two matches at the tournament, both 2-2, including the quarter-final against Argentina in 2022, which ended in defeat on penalties after a dramatic fightback.

They have only once before gone at least three World Cup games without a victory, during a spell of five winless fixtures between 1978 and 1990. That history adds context to the current situation, as another draw or loss against Sweden would leave the Oranje relying heavily on other Group F results.

Gakpo reflected openly on the draw with Japan, when the Netherlands led twice but failed to close the game out. “In the end, we were disappointed. We were ahead twice, and then you want to win the game,” Gakpo said. “We have to admit that Japan were a good, tough team and that they made good use of their chances.”

“But there was certainly disappointment for us. In the small spaces, Japan defended very disciplined. It may be the same against Sweden, but their organisation is probably slightly different. We’re going to analyse that tomorrow and then make a plan to create a lot of chances.”

Netherlands vs Sweden World Cup Group F: Group picture and probabilities

Gakpo accepts that the Netherlands now operate with little room for mistakes in Group F after failing to take maximum points on matchday one. The size of Sweden’s win over Tunisia also sharpens goal difference concerns, which could matter if teams finish level on points after the final round.

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Gakpo stressed that the main target remains clear despite those numbers. “We know that we have to win the games because we want to go through the group stage.” Gakpo also said: “Obviously the result for Sweden was very good for them, but we have to see that separately and just focus on ourselves, on what we can improve.”

As the Netherlands prepare for Sweden in Houston, the contest already feels decisive for their World Cup path. Gakpo’s respect for Isak’s threat, combined with analysis of Sweden’s structure, shows how seriously Koeman’s squad take this challenge while still believing that a win can restore control of Group F.