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Arsenal enter their Premier League meeting with Everton defending a seven-point cushion over Manchester City, knowing victory could stretch that gap to 10 points before Guardiola’s side play, while also keeping momentum in a season where the Premier League, Champions League, FA Cup and EFL Cup all remain possible targets.

Everton arrive at Emirates Stadium chasing European qualification from eighth place, sitting five points behind fifth-place Chelsea, and carrying impressive away form that includes seven league victories on the road, setting up a contest between a title contender and one of the division’s strongest travelling teams.

Mikel Arteta stressed that Arsenal’s current position cannot be taken for granted and reminded the squad that every point matters in the closing months of the season as the team try to stay top of the table against pressure from Manchester City and the other Champions League chasers.

“You just have to go and talk to the dressing room to find out how much we value the position we have right now and how much we want to be in the same position at the end of the season,” he said. “And that depends on us. We have to focus on what we have to do and maintain it until the end of the season. Every game that you win now is a massive step towards the objective. We’re going to have to earn it [on Saturday]. And if we do earn it, we’re going to be closer.”

Arsenal move into this game after three straight Premier League wins, progress to the FA Cup quarter-finals and a late draw against Bayer Leverkusen in the Champions League last-16 first leg, results that have steadied the team following a dip in February and preserved hopes of winning four trophies, with an EFL Cup final against Manchester City scheduled for March 22.

Arteta pointed towards the need to treat each fixture on its own terms, with the staff focusing on short-term preparation for Everton rather than the wider schedule, while also aware that the league leaders have overperformed their expected goals figure by nine this season, scoring 59 times from an xG of 50, which underlines the team’s clinical finishing.

Declan Rice has been central to Arsenal’s attacking build-up in the Premier League, with only Bruno Fernandes, on 92, and Dominik Szoboszlai, on 56, creating more chances than Rice’s 55, while the midfielder has supplied five assists, leaving Rice joint-seventh in the division and slightly short of his 5.9 expected assists total.

At the other end of the pitch, Everton goalkeeper Jordan Pickford approaches a statistical landmark, having conceded 498 goals in 353 Premier League appearances, and another two goals would make Pickford the ninth goalkeeper to let in 500, with only Paul Robinson, on 338, and Ben Foster, on 353, potentially reaching that figure in fewer matches, something Pickford will want to avoid.

Everton’s recent defensive numbers are supported by underlying data, as the team have conceded only 33 league goals despite an expected goals against figure of 41.4, an overperformance of 8.4 that is the largest in the competition, reflecting a combination of organised defending and effective goalkeeping during a season of frequent away success.

Arsenal vs Everton prediction and historical record

Arsenal have lost just one of their last 15 Premier League fixtures, a 3-2 defeat against Manchester United in January, and are unbeaten in six league matches against Everton, winning four and drawing two, after previously losing four of five, while also putting together three consecutive top-flight victories ahead of this meeting.

Everton travel with confidence after winning their last two league games and taking four victories from their previous five away matches, drawing the other, and could secure three straight away league wins for the first time since December 2023, when they put together a run of four, although historical results at Arsenal remain difficult reading.

Across 29 Premier League visits to Arsenal, Everton have managed just one victory, a 1-0 success in April 2021, alongside five draws and 23 defeats, and David Moyes has only one win from 20 Premier League away games against Arsenal as a manager, though Moyes feels the current team have earned respect through their standards this season.

“I don’t think they will be fearing us because of the level they play at, but I hope that they will give us the respect which we deserve because we have been performing well enough,” Moyes said. “We have been trying to be tough to play against, and we have played some really good football this year, so I hope that they give us that respect.”

Analytical models still place Arsenal as strong favourites, with Opta giving the league leaders a 72.8% chance of victory, compared with 15.7% for a draw and 11.5% for an Everton win, figures that reflect both Arsenal’s status in the title race and Everton’s contrasting record when visiting this particular ground.

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With Arsenal chasing another crucial three points in the Premier League title race and Everton targeting a push towards European places, this match brings together contrasting ambitions, long-term dominance for Arsenal at home and strong current away form for Everton, setting up a meeting shaped by fine margins, detailed preparation and the pressure of the season’s closing stretch.

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