Addis Ababa, Ethiopia – Ethiopia will hold general elections on June 1, 2026, with Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s governing Prosperity Party (PP) widely expected to secure a decisive victory.

A fragmented opposition and violence in parts of the country could keep millions from voting.

In the capital, Addis Ababa, the ruling party has closed major roads, including Meskel Square in the city centre, to stage large rallies for supporters, while opposition parties say they have been barred from holding comparable gatherings.

Henok Gebre-Selassie, a 29-year-old contract courier at a government office, attended a large campaign rally this week after being transported from his workplace in the early hours of the morning, despite his strong misgivings about the administration. He said he felt he would be ostracised at work if he did not join colleagues who were pressured into attending out of concern for their public sector jobs.

“This government has waged endless wars while famine remains a major challenge, and yet it is focused on building parks and skyscrapers, while pushing many of us to the outskirts of the city where infrastructure is still poor,” Henok said.

Conflict shadows the vote

Ethiopia’s electoral board says more than 50 million people have registered to vote out of a population of at least 130 million, but critics dispute the figures, saying large parts of the country remain affected by conflicts in regions including Amhara and Oromia, as well as lingering instability following the Tigray conflict.

Several of the country’s most populous regions, including Amhara, Oromia, Gambella and Tigray, remain unstable after a civil war that ended in 2022, killing an estimated 600,000 people and displacing millions.

“The polls are primarily a symbolic exercise intended to confer legitimacy on the incumbent,” Kjetil Tronvoll, professor at Oslo New University College and an expert on Ethiopia, told Al Jazeera.

“Multiparty elections in Ethiopia have never been a genuine contest with the real possibility of changing government, neither under the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) nor under the PP,” he said.

Tigray’s exclusion raises fears

“With the exclusion of Tigray, the challenge is far bigger than it appears on the surface,” Tronvoll said, adding that it reflects Ethiopia’s political and territorial crisis.

“It is a consequence of the federal government’s lack of territorial control and the erosion of federal authority over political institutions in the region,” he said.

Many opposition voices have been pushed out of formal political space, with armed movements active across Amhara, Oromia and other regions.

Tigray has been excluded entirely from the election, as the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), a banned but influential political actor in the region, consolidates its authority, raising fears of renewed confrontation with the federal government and wider instability in the Horn of Africa.

Claims of intimidation and pressure

Some opposition parties say they are participating to preserve their licences, which they fear could be revoked if they boycott.

Opposition leader Mistresilasie Tamerat, 23, who heads the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Party (EPRP), says she has been repeatedly denied permits and venues to organise rallies, an issue also highlighted by the Ethiopian Human Rights Commission (EHRC), a government-established human rights body.

“I believe democracy is possible for Ethiopia’s politics, but not without tireless effort and honest confrontation with reality,” she told Al Jazeera.

For her and other opposition figures and journalists deemed unfriendly to the government, the risks include detention and imprisonment, with many forced to flee the country.

Much of Ethiopia’s media and journalists have been warned against critical coverage of the upcoming election, while the media regulatory authority has come under scrutiny for its actions against the press, including the reported deportation of journalists and restrictions affecting outlets such as The Economist and The Africa Report.

This week, the International Federation for Human Rights (FIDH) said the government must “take concrete steps, in the immediate term and over the longer term, to protect human rights defenders, restore civic space, and ensure an electoral environment consistent with Ethiopia’s own constitution and international human rights obligations”.

Ethiopia now ranks 145th out of 180 countries in Reporters Without Borders’ 2025 Press Freedom Index, alongside Eritrea, North Korea and Iran near the bottom of the ranking.

Addis Standard, a leading critical online publication, has had its licence withdrawn, while The Reporter newspaper, the country’s largest-circulation paper, has been warned to align its reporting with government narratives.

The government has invited only limited international observers, mainly from the African Union and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development, which critics say have limited influence in assessing electoral fairness.

Muted campaign mood ahead of election

Days before the vote, the mood in Addis Ababa is subdued.

There are few campaign signs beyond those of the governing party and little visible political activity, reflecting a mood shaped by double-digit inflation and an influx of displaced people fleeing insecurity elsewhere in the country.

Even music perceived as critical of the government, including songs by popular artist Teddy Afro, is increasingly absent from public spaces and radio broadcasts, residents say.

For Yosef Asnake, a 41-year-old public school teacher, the election is the last thing on his mind.

Speaking at a local cafe in Addis Ababa, he questioned why the government was spending heavily on what he described as a public relations exercise rather than a genuinely competitive election.

“What is the point of casting my ballot and wasting my time when the government will win by all means?” he asked, “while pressing issues like war, conflict and famine continue to be overlooked?”