China and India are increasingly turning to Brazil to make up for lost oil supplies as the fallout from the US-Israel war on Iran continues to disrupt energy trade through the Strait of Hormuz.

With oil harder to access and Russian supply largely constrained by sanctions, Asian buyers are scrambling for crude from suppliers seen as safer and more reliable.

Brazil, which is already one of the world’s biggest oil exporters, has emerged as one of the clearest beneficiaries.

Sumit Ritolia, a specialist in modelling refinery and oil markets at Kpler, told Al Jazeera: “The disruption caused by the Iran war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has increased the importance of Brazil as a marginal crude supplier to Asia.”

“China and India in particular have increased purchases of Brazilian crude to secure barrels that are not exposed to Gulf shipping disruptions,” he added.

Analysts say Brazil cannot replace the Middle East as Asia’s main oil supplier. However, as shipping risks rise in the Gulf amid Iran’s effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the corresponding naval blockade on Iranian ports by the United States, its oil has become increasingly attractive to refiners seeking to avoid supply shocks.

Asian countries imported about 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude from Brazil in 2025, according to data supplied to Al Jazeera by trade intelligence firm Kpler. That rose to roughly 1.8 million bpd between January and May this year, highlighting Brazil’s growing role in Asia’s efforts to diversify away from the Gulf.

How much more oil is Brazil exporting?

Brazil had already been increasing oil production in major offshore developments before tensions escalated in the Middle East.

According to Kpler data, Brazil was producing about 3.77 million bpd of oil in 2025. Between January and May, this rose to an average of 4.06 million bpd, with 4.11 million bpd in May.

But Ritolia said the increase is not just down to a rapid wartime production surge.

“Since March 2026, Brazil’s production has increased only marginally by around 50,000 to 100,000 barrels per day, indicating limited short-term flexibility to rapidly ramp up supply in response to global disruptions,” he said.

The real difference is where its oil is going, he explained.

Petrobras, Brazil’s state oil company, has increasingly redirected exports towards Asia, where refiners are paying more for crude that does not pass through the Gulf.

More than 60 percent of Petrobras exports are now heading to China, while exports to the US have reportedly fallen to zero from about 60,000bpd in March, according to oilprice.com.

The shift is beginning to benefit Brazil’s economy. The OECD reported in March that rising crude prices are expected to support Brazil’s trade balance, while the country’s Ministry of Finance estimates that Brent crude reaching $100 per barrel would generate revenue equivalent to almost 1 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) above current 2026 budget projections.

Who is buying more Brazilian oil?

Demand from China is driving much of the increase in Brazilian exports, with Chinese imports of Brazilian crude averaging about 1.316 million bpd between January and May this year, compared with about 704,000bpd in 2025, according to Kpler data.

In dollar terms, official data compiled by the Brazil-China Business Council shows that the value of Brazil’s crude exports to China surged by almost 95 percent to $7.2bn in the first quarter of this year.

Meanwhile, India has also sharply increased purchases, with its imports averaging about 238,000bpd between January and May, up from roughly 100,000bpd in 2025, according to Kpler. In April, Brazil became India’s fourth-largest crude supplier.

“China and India, along with other Asian countries, need non-Hormuz alternatives that are politically safer and physically available,” Ritolia said.

“Brazil’s medium-sweet pre-salt grades fit many Asian refinery slates, and Asian buyers are competing for barrels not exposed to Gulf shipping risk.”

India’s demand is also being driven by rising fuel consumption at home, unlike China, which has pivoted more heavily to electric vehicles (EVs).

India also has less flexibility to absorb a prolonged disruption through strategic reserves, meaning refiners have a stronger incentive to keep crude flowing if supplies are available and profitable.

What about countries beyond China and India?

Brazil is also looking to deepen energy ties elsewhere in Asia.

Foreign Minister Mauro Vieira said last week that Brazil is “ready to contribute to the energy safety of Japan” through increased crude exports, adding that Petrobras was prepared to expand its presence there.

The comments came as Brazil steps up diplomatic and economic engagement across Asia, including with South Korea, Japan and other Southeast Asian countries.

Earlier this year, Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva visited South Korea, where both countries agreed to upgrade bilateral relations to a “strategic partnership” and signed a series of agreements aimed at expanding trade and economic cooperation.

With the Strait of Hormuz still partly blocked, Brazil has become more strategically valuable far beyond the Americas, at least for now, according to experts.

Is Brazilian crude a good replacement for Gulf oil?

Two of Brazil’s main export grades – known as Tupi and Buzios – are considered “medium-sweet” crude oils, meaning they contain relatively low sulphur levels and can be processed efficiently into fuels such as diesel and jet fuel.

That makes them attractive to Asian refineries trying to maintain fuel production amid tighter global supply.

US President Donald Trump has also been touting Venezuelan oil to other countries, but this is a very heavy, “sour” oil that many refineries in Asia are unable to process. Washington took effective control of Venezuela’s oil industry following the abduction of then-President Nicolas Maduro from Caracas by US forces in January.

Brazilian oil offers supply security for China, while for India, it also helps refinery economics as domestic fuel demand continues to rise.

However, while Brazilian crude is a better grade suited for Asian refineries compared with Venezuela’s, it is still not a perfect substitute for Gulf oil.

“Brazilian crude can replace some medium-sweet Gulf barrels and reduce Hormuz exposure, especially for China and India,” Ritolia said.

“But it is not a like-for-like replacement for all Gulf grades.”

What other constraints exist on Brazilian oil?

Distance is a major issue for Brazilian exports of oil to Asia. Shipping crude from Brazil to China can take roughly 50 days – far longer than Gulf routes – increasing freight costs and tying up tankers in an already strained shipping market.

Russia could also become a stronger competitor later this year as Arctic shipping routes reopen seasonally. Cargoes travelling from Russia’s Arctic terminals to China can take almost half the time of the Brazil-China route.

Last week, the US also announced another 30-day extension of a sanctions waiver on Russian oil and petroleum products already loaded onto tankers at sea.

That could make floating Russian crude more attractive to Asian buyers in the coming months.

“Brazil helps diversify crude imports for Asian countries, but its role as an alternative supplier remains capped by Brazil’s overall crude supply growth, freight economics, and competition from buyers in Europe and the US,” Ritolia said.

“As a result, Brazil is a meaningful marginal alternative for Asia during periods of supply disruption, but it is unlikely to become a structural replacement for Middle Eastern crude in the long term.”