Donald Trump’s approval rating has fallen to its lowest point of his second term, amid mounting frustration over the cost of living and the US-Israel war on Iran.

As November’s US midterm elections loom, most American voters believe Trump’s decision to go to war with Iran was the wrong choice, according to polling released on Monday.

The US president’s approval rating has declined to 37%, according to the New York Times/Siena poll: the lowest level since his return to office in January 2025.

Presidential approval ratings have historically provided a strong sense of how the party of the White House incumbent will likely fare in upcoming elections.

As the war on Iran drags on, and Trump debates his next steps, nearly two-thirds of voters said entering the conflict had been the wrong call. Fewer than one in four Americans said the war had been worth the costs.

Those economic costs have materialized across the world since the US and Israel first attacked Iran in late February. Last week, Trump said: “I don’t think about Americans’ financial situation,” when asked if the economic hardship inflicted on Americans was motivating him to seek a peace deal.

The nationwide average US fuel price – a key benchmark for economic and affordability concerns ahead of elections – now stands at almost $4.52 per gallon, according to the latest data from AAA, up from $3.18 a year ago.

An estimated 64% of US voters disapprove of Trump’s handling of the economy, an issue long seen as Trump’s political bedrock, according to the the Times/Siena poll. A majority of US voters also gave him poor marks on his management of the cost of living, immigration and the Israel-Palestine issue.

Among independent voters, 47% say his policies have personally hurt them, compared with 41% last fall.

Trump’s approval rating has been in decline for some time. By October 2025, 10 months after his return to office, it had already fallen to 42%, the same level Joe Biden had reached more than three years into this term, in April 2024, according to researchers at the University of Massachusetts Lowell. The researchers noted at the time that all the goodwill from his election victory appeared to have drained away.

The administration’s heavy-handed approach to deportations, including confrontations in which two US citizens were killed by federal agents, undermined his support. But the fallout from the decision to join Israel in striking Iran, and the oil crisis that followed, appears to have hastened the decline.

John Johnson, a 78-year-old contractor from Crescent Springs, Kentucky, who voted for Trump, told the Guardian this month. “Everybody’s suffering from gas prices,” he said. On the war itself, he added: “Is it handled right? I don’t think so. It could have been handled differently, diplomatically more so.”

But the poll is not a straightforward win for Democrats, either. Only 26% of voters said they were satisfied with the Democratic party, and 44% of Democrats expressed dissatisfaction with their own party.