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Diego Simeone has played down talk of Atletico Madrid being favourites when Tottenham visit the Metropolitano for the Champions League last-16 first leg on 10 March, despite home advantage and Spurs’ domestic struggles, stressing that performances in the league phase still shape outside expectations for this tie.

Simeone accepts Atletico supporters may expect a lead to take back to north London next week, yet the head coach continues to underline the strength Spurs showed earlier in the competition, and points to Atletico’s own inconsistent European record against English opposition in recent seasons.

Atletico finished only 14th in the new 36-team league phase, which forced a play-off, though Simeone’s side produced a strong response there, beating Club Brugge 7-4 on aggregate after a 4-1 victory in the second leg, while Tottenham secured fourth place under Thomas Frank before Frank was replaced by Igor Tudor.

Simeone used that contrast to frame expectations, stressing that the table from earlier rounds still matters for outside views. “We approach everything in the same way. I believe that no team, when they enter the field, remember where they are in the table,” Simeone told reporters. “Footballers want to play, they want to win, they want to do well. They came fourth in the league phase, we came through the play-offs, so we are not favourites.”

History offers mixed signals for Atletico. They have progressed from two of three previous Champions League last-16 meetings with English clubs, eliminating Liverpool in 2019-20 and Manchester United in 2021-22, but losing to Chelsea in 2020-21, and they have managed only one victory in their last ten Champions League matches against English opposition.

That single win against an English club in this period came when Atletico beat Manchester United 1-0 in March 2022. Across those ten fixtures, Atletico recorded two draws and seven defeats, a sequence that underlines why Simeone remains cautious, even as predictive models give his side the edge for this first leg at the Metropolitano.

The Opta supercomputer currently estimates Atletico have a 60.1% chance of taking an advantage into the return match, with Tottenham arriving in poor Premier League form. Spurs lost 2-1 to Fulham in their last league outing and now sit one point above the relegation zone after a 10-game winless run, matching their longest such streak in the competition.

Tottenham last went ten Premier League matches without victory between January and March 1994 under Ossie Ardiles, highlighting the scale of their current problems. This will also be Tudor’s first appearance as a head coach in Champions League knockout football, and Tudor has so far collected only two wins from nine matches in the competition, drawing twice and losing five times.

His most recent Champions League game also took place in Spain, ending in a 1-0 defeat at Real Madrid with Juventus earlier this season, and Simeone feels Tudor’s appointment adds a layer of uncertainty. “We don’t know how Tottenham are going to start the game,” Simeone added. “We do know their characteristics and I know their coach, who has always set up his teams to play with an offensive thought. We imagine many things and then the players can change them.”

This last-16 opener will also see Atletico reunite with former loanee Conor Gallagher, who joined Spurs from England in January for a reported £35m fee, and Simeone spoke warmly about Gallagher’s time in Madrid. “He [Gallagher] is a boy who worked with great humility with us, a worker,” Simeone said. “A player who, coming from the second line, is very dangerous. He can play in different positions to help the team as needed. He is a boy who behaved very well here. We have very good memories of his time at Atletico.”

The meeting with Tottenham, therefore, brings together Atletico’s strong home belief, a challenging record versus English clubs, Spurs’ severe league troubles, and Tudor’s limited Champions League experience, leaving Simeone’s team favoured by the numbers yet still wary of Tottenham’s attacking intentions and the tactical changes that could emerge across both legs.

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