Arsenal enter the final stretch of the Premier League season with control of the title race and renewed belief. With two matches left, Arsenal stand ahead of Manchester City and could end a 24-year wait for a Premier League title if results stay in their favour.

Data from the Opta supercomputer underlines the current balance of power. Arsenal are rated as having an 86.5% chance of becoming champions, while Manchester City are given a 13.5% probability. Those numbers reflect recent results, including City’s costly draw with Everton earlier this month.

Arsenal now prepare to host Burnley on Monday in what could be a key step towards the trophy. The fixture suits Arsenal’s record against relegated teams. The Gunners have won all 10 Premier League matches this season against sides already relegated, giving them the best perfect record of that kind in the competition.

There is still little margin for error because goal difference may yet become important. Manchester City’s 3-0 victory over Crystal Palace on Wednesday kept pressure on Arsenal. That result reminded both clubs that scoring goals, not only winning, could decide the title if points end level at the finish.

Mikel Arteta explained that the turning point for Arsenal came in defeat against Manchester City in April. Arsenal lost 2-1 in that game, which allowed Pep Guardiola’s team to move above Arsenal on goal difference at the time, sparking concern among supporters about momentum in the title contest.

Arteta said the experience against Manchester City sharpened the group’s focus and belief. It was a reset moment, said the Spaniard. The performance was there and I think we deserved much more when we got out of the game. But we used that as fuel to be even more convinced and to understand that what we’ve done up to now is fine. Let’s learn every bit of it and now let’s use it for the last five games. That’s what remains and we have every chance to go and do it.

Arsenal Premier League title chances and defensive record

Arsenal’s defensive record has supported their push. Arsenal have collected 16 Premier League wins with clean sheets this season, their second-highest total after the 17 shutout victories recorded in 2023-24. Seven of those clean-sheet wins have finished 1-0, a figure last bettered by nine such wins in 1998-99.

Those narrow wins highlight how often Arsenal have needed discipline rather than high scores to stay ahead. Arteta acknowledged that balance between security and attacking threat. First of all, you have to earn the right to win the game, Arteta added. Obviously, you can make a difference with more goals, thats obviously even better. But were all playing very tough matches. We had a tough match against West Ham and we managed to win it. It was a great feeling, but we know ideally that scoring goals is going to be important.

As Arsenal approach their final two league fixtures, the combination of strong defensive numbers, a perfect record against relegated opponents and the motivational impact of the defeat to Manchester City has shaped their current position. With the title probabilities heavily in Arsenal’s favour, the focus now rests on turning that advantage into a first Premier League crown since 2002.