Nebraska Democrats are bullish about Republican losses in the right-leaning Plains state – but their prospects depend on today’s Democratic primaries, which include accusations of planted candidates and inadvertently depriving Democrats of power.

A crowded Democratic primary in the state’s second congressional district, referred to as its “blue dot”, has focused around concerns that if a state senator wins, the Republican governor will replace him with a Republican who would help overturn Nebraska’s divided electoral college vote system.

The district – which includes the state’s largest city, Omaha – is seen as a top contender for a Democratic pickup as the left works to win back the US House of Representatives during a midterm elections cycle expected to be bruising for Republicans.

And in the Democratic US Senate primary, the two candidates both face accusations that they are not authentic, as the best hope for a Republican loss in November comes from an independent candidate, whom state Democrats have thrown their support behind.

Second congressional district

Most US states use a winner-take-all method to award electoral college votes: whoever wins the whole state gets the entirety of its electoral college votes, the process by which the US elects a president. But in Nebraska, each congressional district awards an electoral college vote. And in the “blue dot” of the second congressional district, Democrats have won the electoral college vote in three of the last five elections, including for Kamala Harris in 2024.

The state’s congressional delegation is now composed of three Republicans, but representative Don Bacon, who has held the second district seat since 2017, announced last year he wouldn’t seek re-election, providing an opening for Democrats. The Cook Political Report, the election prognosticator, says the district leans Democratic and is a “prime opportunity” for a pickup.

“It hasn’t really been competitive like this in more than a generation,” Randy Adkins, a political science professor at the University of Nebraska at Omaha, told Nebraska Public Media.

Republicans cleared the field: Brinker Harding, an Omaha city council member, is the only one running on the right.

Six Democrats are vying for the seat, with three seen as top contenders. State senator John Cavanaugh has topped the few polls of the race. Denise Powell, a political organizer who founded an organization to help women in Nebraska run for office, has seen a flood of outside money supporting her candidacy. Crystal Rhoades, a county clerk with more than a decade in local government experience, rounds out the list.

Republicans have sought to change Nebraska’s electoral college voting process to a winner-take-all method, most recently in 2025, when the effort failed by two votes. If Cavanaugh wins the general election for the second district, the Republican governor, Jim Pillen, would get the chance to appoint his replacement through 2028, which could give Republicans the numbers to overturn the “blue dot”.

The issue has been a focus of the Democratic primary, with Powell and Rhoades hitting Cavanaugh on it repeatedly.

Senate primary

Democrats’ best hope for peeling the US Senate seat away from Republicans in Nebraska rests with an independent, Dan Osborn. Osborn lost the 2024 race by six points against incumbent Deb Fischer, and he’s making another run of it, this time against Republican incumbent Pete Ricketts.

While Osborn isn’t running in the Democratic primary, his presence in the general election still dominates it.

Cindy Burbank, a retired pharmacy technician, faces William Forbes, a pastor who has voted for Trump and opposed abortion access. Burbank has said she will drop out of the race if she wins the primary, clearing the way for a head-to-head matchup between Osborn and Ricketts. Burbank told the New York Times: “I will stay in until it is obvious that I cannot win in November, and I will drop out.”

Forbes faces accusations that he is a Ricketts plant designed to peel off votes from Osborn, if he makes it to the general. On Burbank’s campaign website, she says Osborn “deserves a fair shot against Ricketts” and claims Ricketts knows he’s losing to Osborn so he’s running a “‘fake’ Democrat” in the form of Forbes. The Ricketts campaign has denied the claims.

“This is why Ricketts put a plant into the Dem primary … he knows a head to head race with Osborn is competitive and he needs candidates on the ballot to peel off votes,” Jane Kleeb, the head of the Nebraska Democratic party, wrote on Twitter this week. “Vote for ***Cindy Burbank*** for US Senate so Ricketts candidate he placed in our Dem primary doesn’t advance.”

The state Democratic party has endorsed Burbank for the primary and Osborn for the general election.