A refusal by Saudi Arabia to allow the US to use its bases and airspace to provide a military escort for oil tankers passing through the strait of Hormuz lay behind Donald Trump’s decision to shelve the plan days after it had been launched.
Riyadh told the White House it would not allow its Prince Sultan airbase to be used to mount the operation billed as Project Freedom, which the US presented as the successor to the bombing campaign called Operation Epic Fury.
Saudi Arabia refused to drop its objections despite a personal call between the crown prince Mohammed bin Salman and Trump, NBC reported.
The confrontation – not denied by Riyadh – underlines Saudi Arabia’s desire for a permanent end to the damaging US-Israel war on Iran on almost any terms, in contrast to its more assertive Gulf neighbour the United Arab Emirates.
In a sign of the Emirates frustration with Riyadh’s caution, the UAE has already quit the Saudi-dominated oil producers club Opec and is now considering leaving the Arab League as well.
The UAE as a signatory to the Abraham accords has long been closer to Israel, but the tensions within the Gulf have widened as the war has dragged on, causing untold damage to their economies and international image.
The Emirates are furious that they had been the biggest target for Iran’s attacks, and felt there was insufficient solidarity across the Gulf.
Saudi Arabia also feared Project Freedom did not have clear terms of engagement and could turn into a risky naval confrontation between Iran and the US, marking the effective end of the ceasefire that had been in partial force since 7 April. Iran had explicitly said it would treat the US military escort of oil tankers or attacks on Iranian shipping as a ceasefire breaches, exposing Gulf states to further attack.
An end to the ceasefire would not only result in a naval conflict in the strait, but also Tehran resuming its damaging drone and missile attacks on US bases in the Gulf and energy installations in the region. Those attacks have probably caused more damage to Gulf infrastructure than previously reported.
The Saudi intervention will also be seen as a late expression of Riyadh’s lack of confidence in how Trump has handled the conflict. Riyadh was often left looking like an aggrieved but powerless victim of a conflict it had never advocated. It was neither impressed by the degree of protection the US provided from Iranian attacks or the coherence of White House strategy.
One Saudi diplomat said it was obvious for a long time the US had landed itself in a conflict from which it could neither escalate or exit.
There had been surprise on Tuesday when, after spending two days building up the significance of Project Freedom, Trump posted a message reversing course. He claimed the operation was being halted for a short period of time by mutual agreement because great progress had been made towards a deal with Iran, partly due to the intervention of China. He said the suspension would allow time to see whether an agreement could be reached with Iran.
Trump made no reference to Saudi objections, or to the denial of airspace. His surprise decision had also undercut a day of heavy messaging by the US secretary of state, Marco Rubio, the defence secretary, Pete Hegseth, and the chair of the joint chiefs of staff, Gen Dan Caine – all of whom had said the operation would finally guarantee freedom of navigation for the hundreds of ships stranded in the strait. The plan had been for the US blockade of Iranian ports to continue.
Saudi Arabia may have also been concerned that Project Freedom would lead to the Houthis in Yemen getting involved. Riyadh has been working hard behind the scenes to keep the the armed political and religious group out of conflict. Closure of the Red Sea route through Houthi interventions would only make the threat to essential oil supplies worldwide even worse. The Saudis had reached reached an agreement with Iran that safeguarded their pipeline to Yanbu, ensuring they could export as much as 50% of their output via the Red Sea.
The Emirates by contrast had been much bolder than Riyadh in trying to get their oil tankers past the Iran blockade, often turning off their transponders in the hope of not being tracked.
Riyadh’s intervention, which has reduced Trump’s options to break the blockade, is likely to prompt a further deterioration in Saudi-Emirati relations
Riyadh was already concerned that the deepening UAE-Israel ties could extend to a small number of Israeli troops operating on Emirati soil. Saudi Arabia, with a much larger population, has to tread more carefully over Israel. With France, it had led effort to revive the concept of a two-state solution in which a Palestinian state was recognised internationally.
Saudi Arabia has separate points of dispute with the Emirates in Yemen, Somalia and Sudan. None of those will be made easier if the US has to settle with Iran on terms the Emirates and Israel believe fail the minimal objectives of Tehran’s critics.
About the Author
