Atletico Madrid approach the second leg of their Champions League semi-final at Emirates Stadium believing they can overturn the odds against Arsenal, even though Opta data gives Arsenal a 56% chance of progressing and Atletico only 20.2%, with the tie level after a 1-1 draw in Madrid.

The first match saw Viktor Gyokeres and Julian Alvarez both convert penalties at the Metropolitano, leaving the contest finely balanced. Despite that, the simulations lean towards Arsenal reaching the Champions League final, while Atletico Madrid chase a third appearance under Diego Simeone after previous runs in 2014 and 2016.

Atletico Madrid are trying to reach another Champions League final with Simeone, who has already guided the club to two. Only Alex Ferguson with Manchester United and Marcello Lippi with Juventus have reached more finals with a single team, each doing so four times in the competition’s history.

Recent Champions League trips to England have not favoured Atletico Madrid. The team have suffered defeat in six of the last seven away matches against English opposition, winning only once. That run includes four straight losses, a sequence that adds further weight to Arsenal’s status as favourites before this second leg.

Julian Alvarez returns to the squad after missing Atletico Madrid’s 2-0 victory over Valencia, which followed an injury in the first leg against Arsenal. Alvarez has delivered 34 goal contributions in 2,710 Champions League minutes, averaging one goal or assist every 80 minutes, a figure bettered only by Erling Haaland.

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Of strikers with at least 20 goal involvements in the Champions League, only Haaland, on 74 minutes per contribution, owns a more efficient record than Alvarez. Simeone values the forward’s experience in England and believes those minutes in the Premier League could prove useful against Arsenal at Emirates Stadium.

Speaking about Alvarez’s impact in major fixtures, Simeone said: “What Julian brings to these important matches,” Simeone said of the striker. “He knows the English league very well, and he played very well in the first leg. Hopefully, he can respond in the way the match demands.”

Antoine Griezmann also draws attention before this tie, as the forward could play a 128th and final match in major European competition. Griezmann has agreed to join MLS side Orlando City once the season ends and currently sits on 127 European appearances with 50 goals in those tournaments.

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Griezmann’s scoring record places the French forward among elite company. The Atletico Madrid player is one of four Frenchmen with at least 50 goals in major European competitions, joining Karim Benzema with 90, Kylian Mbappe on 78 and Thierry Henry with 58, underlining Griezmann’s long-term influence at this level.

Simeone expects his side to deliver a controlled performance despite the pressure at Emirates Stadium. “We will try to play the game we need to, with the understanding the game demands, so that the players raise their performance,” Simeone said. “We are convinced and sure of what we want.”

Simeone then acknowledged external factors in such a high-stakes tie. “But it won’t depend on us. I think everyone is always looking for a title, something out of the ordinary. The reality is that footballers and coaches just want the game to start.”

Simeone highlighted performance as the deciding factor in this Champions League meeting with Arsenal. “And whoever plays better will have a better chance, and everyone will want to maximise their strengths.” The coach’s comments reflect a desire to manage emotions while focusing on execution in key moments.

Griezmann stated that personal milestones are secondary before facing Arsenal in the Champions League. “I’m focused on [Wednesday’s] game, on what my team-mates will need,” Griezmann said when asked if he envisioned himself saying goodbye to Atletico in the Champions League final. “I’m not thinking about the games I have left.”

Griezmann stressed physical readiness above sentiment. “I’m just focused on being fresh and having good legs. Every time we start the Champions League, you see yourself lifting the trophy. Every kid dreams of it. We do too. We’re two games away.”

Looking ahead to the second leg, Griezmann outlined what Atletico Madrid require against Arsenal. “We have to be solid tactically, both defensively and offensively. We have to maintain the same level we showed in the second half of the first leg. But we also need to score a few more goals.”

With Arsenal favoured and historical away form in England against them, Atletico Madrid rely on Simeone’s tactical planning, Alvarez’s attacking return and Griezmann’s experience. The semi-final remains finely balanced, and both clubs stand within two matches of lifting this season’s Champions League trophy.