Manchester City and Arsenal head into Sunday’s clash at the Etihad Stadium with the Premier League title race finely balanced, as Pep Guardiola prepares for what is described as a decisive meeting against an Arsenal side that Manchester City recently defeated in the EFL Cup final.

Arsenal’s surprise home defeat to Bournemouth on Saturday opened a clear opportunity for Manchester City, who responded by beating Chelsea 3-0 to move within six points of Mikel Arteta’s team, and Guardiola’s side still hold a game in hand before facing Arsenal again in the league.

If Manchester City win on Sunday at the Etihad Stadium, the gap to Arsenal will fall to three points, while the extra fixture still to play keeps Manchester City firmly in the title picture, though Guardiola continues to stress that Arsenal remain in control of the Premier League title race.

Recent league form underlines Manchester City’s resilience during run-ins, and their record over the last five Premier League seasons shows only one defeat in 43 matches played during the final 10 games, while current momentum also looks strong, with only one loss in the last 19 league fixtures.

Despite those numbers, Opta’s supercomputer still rates Arsenal as favourites to finish as champions, with Manchester City’s title probability placed at 12.7%, reinforcing Guardiola’s view that Arsenal have been setting the level domestically and in Europe during the current season.

“Now it will be a bit different. At home, City on top form, but the respect I have for Arsenal [and]what they’ve done in the last two or three years. How they compete in every circumstance. That will be the biggest job that we have to work in our heads.But [Arsenal] have been the best team in this country and Europe so far today. Beating Arsenal once is so difficult; imagine beating them twice in a few weeks. So we have to rest, prepare and read exactly what we have to do. But I would like to say to my fans: respect Arsenal a lot. They’re an extraordinary team. It’s not naive, it’s not to make them feel something that they are not.”

Guardiola highlighted how demanding Arsenal have been as opponents this season and across recent campaigns, while also reflecting on March 22, when Manchester City beat Arsenal in the EFL Cup final after entering that showpiece as clear outsiders in many opinions across the country.

“I know how difficult it is. They’ve won all the games except one, which they drew,” Guardiola told Sky Sports. “Playing the EFL Cup with Man City completely as underdogsthere was not one person in the country who bet 1 on usthat’s much better.”

Looking ahead to Sunday, Guardiola framed the meeting with Arsenal as a decisive test for Manchester City, especially following their Champions League exit, which has left more training time and recovery periods as the squad focuses its efforts on chasing down Arsenal in the Premier League.

“Arsenal is a final,” Guardiola told reporters. “The past was something unique, but we are growing. We have long weeks now we are out of Champions League, but we are more fresh and in training, everyone knows exactly what they have to do.”

Statistics also support Manchester City’s reputation for strong finishes during title races, a point reflected in data shared by Opta, which highlighted how rarely Manchester City lose in the closing stages of league seasons, especially when pressure increases near the top of the table.

Manchester City therefore approach Arsenal knowing that victory will narrow the deficit to three points with a game in hand, but Guardiola continues to underline Arsenal’s status in the title race, setting up a match that carries major implications for both clubs in the final weeks.