Washington and European capitals are watching with nervous anticipation as the U.S., Israel and Iran prepare for peace talks over the weekend aimed at ending a month-long war that has caused shockwaves through the global economy and left thousands dead.
But even as the first hours of the ceasefire ticked by earlier in the week, Donald Trump’s warmaster Pete Hegseth delivered a diatribe to members of the media that some could take as creating a permission structure to ease the acceptance of future operations — including, possibly, the deployment of a ground force — in the weeks to come.
Hegseth’s press conference on Wednesday was the usual mix of bluster and flag-waving that the defense secretary has fallen back on since taking the job. As he addressed the recent rescue of U.S. service members from Iran after their F-15 was downed by air defenses, U.S. officials claimed are now virtually nonexistent, he noted that the recovery mission was made possible by ground forces.
“Boots on the ground. A midnight raid right in the middle of their country. Boots…on…the…ground,” the defense secretary stressed.
He was far from alone in the sentiment. Over Tuesday and Wednesday, a procession of top officials, led by the president and JD Vance, has issued a wave of threats about what will happen if Iran violates the ceasefire agreement or a deal is not reached to end the war within two weeks. Trump, in his own comments on Truth Social, wrote that U.S. military forces would remain in the region at the ready until further notice.
“All U.S. ships, aircraft, and military personnel … will remain in place in, and around, Iran, until such time as the REAL AGREEMENT reached is fully complied with,” wrote Trump.
Much remains to be hashed out over the course of the next two weeks, and the extent of the U.S.’s success in achieving Trump’s war goals is not yet determined. In particular, control of the Strait of Hormuz continues to be an open question for Washington as oil and natural gas shipping traffic through the key waterway has yet to resume at pre-war levels and reports suggest that Iranian officials are considering demanding a toll of $1 per barrel of oil that travels through the strait, which typically sees millions pass by per day.
Whether the U.S. will accept such a prospect seems highly unlikely. The administration is made up of many conservative Iran hawks who’ve for years accused the Obama administration of unfreezing Iranian assets tied up in U.S. financial systems and, in effect, allowing Iran to finance its nuclear ambitions and regional military alliances.
It would also have a direct effect on an oil economy already spun into a frenzy by the war and still leaving American consumers feeling helpless as they see prices tick up.
Trump seemed to cut off any possibility of that idea on Thursday, while also drawing into question the strength of the ceasefire agreement: “There are reports that Iran is charging fees to tankers going through the Hormuz Strait — They better not be and, if they are, they better stop now!,” he wrote on Truth Social.
In short, the realities on the ground make it seem as if Washington and Tehran are still far apart on the issues that have come to define a war the U.S. and Israel maintain was begun to end the threat of Iran’s nuclear and ballistic weapons programs.
One Republican member of Congress, Pat Fallon, told the Military Times hours before Monday’s ceasefire was announced that the ground deployment of special operations forces “may be required to secure victory and prevent the regime from regrouping” in the weeks ahead. Fallon serves on both the Armed Services and Intelligence committees in the House, where the administration regularly briefs lawmakers.
And on the right, Trump is still facing massive pressure from his more hawkish advisers to remain until the job of forcing Iran into submission is complete.
One of those advisers is columnist Marc Thiessen, who wrote in The Washington Post on Wednesday that Trump should use U.S. ground troops to invade Iran’s Kharg Island port if his 2-week deadline to reach a full peace agreement isn’t honored by Tehran.
“This will give Trump a stranglehold on Iran’s economy, which he can leverage to force the regime to allow the U.S. to come in and remove all of the country’s enriched uranium. If Iran does not agree, he can destroy the export infrastructure on the island, eliminating the regime’s ability to earn hard currency to rebuild its military and spread terror across the region,” Thiessen wrote.
Another is Sen. Lindsey Graham, one of the war’s biggest cheerleaders in Congress, who is urging Trump not to leave until U.S. forces extract 100% of Iran’s stores of enriched uranium.
There’s no segment of Trump’s base that currently views this ceasefire as a victory for the U.S., and that was obvious as the reaction spread across the MAGAsphere. On conservative podcaster Megyn Kelly’s show on Tuesday, Kelly and her guest, Curt Mills of The American Conservative, expressed relief that the president’s threat to annihilate Iran’s entire “civilization” hadn’t been carried out, but stopped there.
“I’m glad it’s coming to an end, don’t get me wrong,” stated Kelly. “But I’m not willing to pretend that this is some huge victory for us…the strait is now controlled by Iran, it wasn’t before. It now costs a toll potentially to get through; it didn’t before.”
Even with polls showing that Americans broadly disapprove of the war and do not believe the White House has a plan to achieve its objectives, the drumbeat of war is roaring across much of MAGA and seems unlikely to be dissuaded by half measures or really anything short of Iran’s total pacification.
With 12 days left for Iranian and U.S. officials to reach a deal to avoid more violence, the world is anxiously waiting for the results of Saturday’s peace talks. In the end, having failed to instigate the collapse of the Iranian government, push Iranian forces out of the Strait of Hormuz, or end the threat of Iran’s ballistic missiles and drones, the ability of Trump to sell “mission accomplished” to Republicans who love him but hate Iran may be the deciding factor in those negotiations.
About the Author
